the Propensity to a gradual weakening will continue in the ruble currency this week, says the economist “BCS Premier” Anton Pokatovich.
In his view, “the main impacts will remain the overall market sentiment and degree of concerns in relation to the epidemiological situation in the world.” “The market may remain a smaller supply of patience on the background of continued strong growth in the number of infected in many of the largest economies in the world. In this regard, the pressure on the ruble and oil prices may increase,” — said in the review of the expert.
In this case, IAC senior analyst “Alpari” Anna Bodrova said that in the evening last Friday with the dollar “stuck around 70,80 ruble remained, therefore, in the target range 70-72 of the ruble.” “The Euro teetered around 80,11 ruble and retain traded the corridor 79,50-of 82.00 ruble,” — says the expert.
In General, the head of the analysis of banks and money market IK “VELES Capital” Yuri Kravchenko, the Russian currency market on Friday, “copied the movement of currencies in the international: for example, the Euro/dollar has appreciated against the end of the day, 0.4 percent, the dollar index was weaker by 0.2% against a basket of major currencies”.
According to the estimates of Pokatovich, in the future, this week the ruble “will be formed in the range of 70.7-72,5 per dollar”.
we also Recall that the Russian national currency since the beginning of this year has significantly depreciated against the dollar and the Euro. Strong pressure on the rouble had a General panic in the financial markets due to the rapid spread of the pandemic coronavirus infection COVID-19 and concerns about its impact on the global economy, and a collapse in oil prices.
So, the strong devaluation of the Russian currency occurred on March 7 on the international Forex market, after the day before the deal collapsed OPEC+, — countries of the Alliance are unable to agree on an additional space.intelkom the reduction in oil production, nor of the extension of the deal for a longer period (1 April 2020). Then, on March 9, 2020, the financial and oil markets suffered “black Monday”, and on 18 March, the market embraced a “black Wednesday” with yet another collapse of oil prices, the Russian national currency in the course of trading on the Moscow stock exchange has updated (at the time) a record low against the dollar and Euro since February of 2016, 81 and 88 million, respectively.
we Add that the real effective exchange rate of the ruble (inflation-adjusted) in June 2020 rose 2.9% against foreign currencies relative to the previous month. In this case the real rate of the ruble against the dollar rose during this period by 5.2%, to Euro — by 1.7%. However, for the first 6 months of the current year the real effective ruble exchange rate decreased by 5%.
On Monday the Bank of Russia set the official dollar exchange rate at the level of 71.23 ruble, Euro — ruble of 80.27.
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