the Key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation can be lowered at the meeting on 19 June at 0.5 percentage points to 5%, predicts the Deputy head of IAC “Alpari” Natalia Milchakova.
She believes that “the Bank of Russia at its June meeting, given the optimistic the may inflation data may make the decision on new reduction of the key interest rates, and it is possible that the rate will be reduced by 0.5 percentage points to 5%”.
“it is Possible that further before the end of the year, the regulator will keep the key rate at 5%. But the possibility of further decline will depend on external factors: the dynamics of oil prices and overcome the consequences of the pandemic coronavirus”, — stated in the review of the expert.
however, she reminds that, according to recent data of Rosstat, “the April jump in inflation up in may proved to be in vain”. “The pace of annual inflation slowed from 3.1% to 3%. Also note that compared to April, the monthly growth of inflation in may slowed from 0.8% to 0.3%,” — says the analyst.
we will Remind, past Friday the Governor of the Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina said that the regulator sees room to cut key rates on 19 June, but the decision will be made come from existing and new data on the situation in the economy. “I once again confirm that we see room to cut rates, and the option of a rate cut of 100 basis points will be considered among other options at the next meeting of the Board of Directors. But the decision we will make based on data that is already entered who will continue to do, and of refining our forward-looking estimates of inflation and GDP”, — said the head of the Central Bank.
Recall that on April 24 the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia lowered the key rate immediately by 50 basis points to 5.5% per annum. Thus, the rate is lowered for the second time this year to the Eastariescope of at least the end of 2013 — beginning of 2014. The regulator thereby identified the exit to accommodative monetary policy that should support the Russian economy in the conditions of a pandemic coronavirus infection.
the Key rate of the Bank of Russia — the main tool of monetary policy of the regulator. The rate at which the Central Bank provides money to commercial banks. She serves as a signal of financial organizations, which focus on key rate, by providing loans and attracting deposits.
Later, on 28 April, Nabiullina said that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, realizing the scale of the economic shock due to coronavirus infection COVID-19, the collapse of oil prices and the devaluation of the ruble could reduce the rate in larger increments than before.
8 may, the Chairman of the Bank of Russia gave to understand that the Central Bank allows the option of reducing the key rate from 100 basis points (or 1 percentage point) at the next meeting, which is scheduled for June 19. According to her, the trajectory of the key interest rate will be determined so that the inflation was near 4%.
let’s Add that the Russian economy in February—March 2020 was under the powerful impact of two negative factors — the rapid spread of the pandemic coronavirus infection COVID-19 and its deleterious effect on the global economy and collapse in oil prices. Against this background, the rouble significantly depreciated against the dollar and the Euro. Reacting to the situation, the government and the Bank of Russia adopted several packages of measures to support the economy and citizens.
on 27 may, the Minister of economic development (MED) of the Russian Federation Maxim Reshetnikov said that the total cost of anti-crisis measures to support the Russian economy, aimed at combating the impact of the pandemic coronavirus has reached 3.3 trillion rubles.
on 2 June Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin briefed President Vladimir Putin a national plan for the recovery of the Russian economy in 2020-2021 yearsx, noting in particular that the cost of the plan will be about 5 trillion rubles.
Stories about how you tried to get help from the Russian state in terms of coronaries and what came of it, email it to COVID-19@rosbalt.ru
