Analyst: Oil and geopolitics can play not in favor of the ruble

the Russian national currency in the beginning of this week may be under pressure due to correction in the global oil market, as well as “changes in the geopolitical plane.” This opinion was expressed by the economist “BCS Premier” Anton Pokatovich.

He predicts that on Monday the course of the Russian national currency “will be formed in the range of 68.8-71 rubles per dollar.” “The risks of a correction in the oil market remain concerns of investors in relation to the preservation of the oil market in surplus in the short term may increase, and the oil support the ruble to weaken,” — said in the review of the expert.

in addition, he said, “not in favor of the ruble act and changes in the geopolitical plane — sanctions rhetoric is gradually returning to background in the RF”.

At the same time the chief analyst of PSB Bogdan Zvarich also warns that “the weakening of the ruble may continue” and in the beginning of this week, “the us dollar will attempt to consolidate in the corridor of 70-75 rubles and 70 rubles will go into the category of support for the dollar.”

we also Recall that the Russian national currency since the beginning of this year has significantly depreciated against the dollar and the Euro. Strong pressure on the rouble had a General panic in the financial markets due to the rapid spread of the pandemic coronavirus infection COVID-19 and concerns about its impact on the global economy, and a collapse in oil prices.

So, the strong devaluation of the Russian currency occurred on March 7 on the international Forex market, after the day before the deal collapsed OPEC+, — countries of the Alliance are unable to agree on cutting oil production, nor of the extension of the deal for a longer period (1 April 2020). Then, on March 9, 2020, the financial and oil markets suffered “black Monday”, and on 18 March the market covered “black Wednesday” with yet another collapse of oil prices, the Russian national currency in the course of trading on the Moscow stock exchange has updated (at the time) a record low against the dollar and Euro since February of 2016, 81 and 88 million, respectively.

we Add that the real effective exchange rate of the ruble (inflation-adjusted) in may 2020 rose by 3.8% against foreign currencies relative to the previous month. In this case the real rate of the ruble against the dollar rose during this period by 4.7%, to Euro — on 3,8%. However, for the first 5 months of the current year the real effective exchange rate of the ruble fell by 7.8%, and the dollar — by 9.9%, and the Euro by 9.7%.

On Monday the Bank of Russia has set the official exchange rate of the US dollar at the level of 69,1219 ruble, Euro — ruble 78,5225.

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