Analyst: playing Against the ruble by several factors

a Moderate weakening of the Russian currency caused the whole “number of factors”, says the economist “BCS Premier” Anton Pokatovich.

First of all, he States, “the market sentiment remains mixed.” “Alarm investors are growing like a virus in the plane and in the plane of the new aggravation in relations between the US and China,” says the review expert.

secondly, he continues, “against the ruble is the seasonality of the second half”. “Thirdly, one of the most important factors for the ruble remains at the background of the sanctions of the Russian Federation, and we see that in recent years the sanctions rhetoric in respect of Russia again aktiviziruyutsya,” warns Pokatovich.

for his part, the Deputy head of IAC “Alpari” Natalia Milchakova says that “the Russian ruble on Friday weakened against the global reserve currencies: the dollar, the ruble fell by 0.58%, and to Euro — on 0,94%, most likely, controversial geopolitical background and because of the threat of new sanctions”.

the head of the analysis of banks and money market IK “VELES Capital” Yuri Kravchenko adds that “in addition to weak risk appetite in global markets” pressure on the domestic currency on Friday was the “correction of oil prices” and, he says, “the continuing rhetoric of sanctions against Russia.” “In particular, on Thursday, the British foreign Secretary announced about the attempts of RF interference in the British elections in 2019, and on Friday appeared information about impending sanctions Germany against Russia in connection with cyber attacks on the Bundestag in 2015”, — the expert specifies.

we also Recall that the Russian national currency since the beginning of this year has significantly depreciated against the dollar and the Euro. Strong pressure on the rouble had a General panic in the financial markets due to the rapid spread of the pandemic coronairynei infection COVID-19 and concerns about its impact on the global economy, and a collapse in oil prices.

So, the strong devaluation of the Russian currency occurred on March 7 on the international Forex market, after the day before the deal collapsed OPEC+, — countries of the Alliance are unable to agree on cutting oil production, nor of the extension of the deal for a longer period (1 April 2020). Then, on March 9, 2020, the financial and oil markets suffered “black Monday”, and on 18 March, the market embraced a “black Wednesday” with yet another collapse of oil prices, the Russian national currency in the course of trading on the Moscow stock exchange has updated (at the time) a record low against the dollar and Euro since February of 2016, 81 and 88 million, respectively.

we Add that the real effective exchange rate of the ruble (inflation-adjusted) in June 2020 rose 2.9% against foreign currencies relative to the previous month. In this case the real rate of the ruble against the dollar rose during this period by 5.2%, to Euro — by 1.7%. However, for the first 6 months of the current year the real effective ruble exchange rate decreased by 5%.

On Monday the Central Bank of the Russian Federation set the official US dollar exchange rate at the level 71,7139 ruble, Euro — ruble 81,6821.

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