participants of the currency market can reduce the appetite to purchase risk, and this factor will have a moderate pressure on the ruble. This opinion was expressed by the economist “BCS Premier” Anton Pokatovich.
He predicts that today’s exchange rate of the Russian national currency “will be formed in the range of 70.7-72 per dollar”. “Market risk-on can be alleviated, the focus is increasingly shifting towards a new wave of escalation of relations between the US and China. In the case of escalation, for example, on the Hong Kong issue, market participants may return to the waiting position, reducing the appetite to buy risk. This factor can exert a moderate pressure on the ruble”, — stated in the review of the expert.
At the same time the chief analyst of PSB Bogdan Zvarich indicates that by the end of Friday’s trading on the Moscow exchange “the dollar rose 0.2%, trading just below 70.7 ruble, the Euro rose by 0.6%, rising to 78.6 ruble.” “In addition to the situation on the energy market, the pressure on the ruble has had a mixed dynamics of the currencies of developing countries,” — said the expert.
But overall, says a senior analyst at IAC “Alpari” Anna Bodrov, “in may, the US dollar fell in tandem with the ruble 6.5%”. However, “since the beginning of the year and at the moment, the strengthening of the American currency against the ruble is estimated at 14.3%, that is, the ruble is still among the losers”, emphasizes the analyst.
for its part, the financial expert CEX.IO Broker Alexander Anouk advises to follow this week “data for the index of business activity in may, because they will help market participants to determine the recovering economy or not.” “This will affect the exchange rate. The demand for Russian currency increases from foreign investors. The key rate (the Central Bank) may soon be lowered, and accordingly, demand for bonds increased. This, together with the positive on the oil market makes sthe attaching of the ruble below 70 per dollar is only a matter of time” — says the analyst.
we also Recall that the Russian national currency since the beginning of this year has significantly depreciated against the dollar and the Euro. Strong pressure on the rouble had a General panic in the financial markets due to the rapid spread of the pandemic coronavirus infection COVID-19 and concerns about its impact on the global economy, and a collapse in oil prices.
So, the strong devaluation of the Russian currency occurred on March 7 on the international Forex market, after the day before the deal collapsed OPEC+, — countries of the Alliance are unable to agree on cutting oil production, nor of the extension of the deal for a longer period (1 April 2020). Then, on March 9, 2020, the financial and oil markets suffered “black Monday”, and on 18 March, the market embraced a “black Wednesday” with yet another collapse of oil prices, the Russian national currency in the course of trading on the Moscow stock exchange has updated (at the time) a record low against the dollar and Euro since February of 2016, 81 and 88 million, respectively.
we Add that the real effective exchange rate of the ruble (inflation-adjusted) in March 2020 fell by 11.4% against foreign currencies relative to the previous month. In this case the real exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar fell during the reporting period, by 12.2% against the Euro by 13.4%. For the first quarter of the current year the real effective rouble rate decreased by 11.5%, to USD — by 13.3%, to Euro — by 12.5%.
On Monday the Bank of Russia has set the official exchange rate of the US dollar at the level of 70,752 ruble, Euro — ruble 78,5489.
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