the Russian national currency “a good chance” to continue slow strengthening, but how much to recover won’t let him. This opinion was expressed by Deputy head of IAC “Alpari” Natalia Milchakova.
“We can this summer to see the dollar to 67 rubles, Euro — at around 75 rubles. If oil will cost $50, the dollar will go down and up to 63 rubles, it can be even cheaper”, — said in the review of the expert.
However, she said, “to exporters of strengthening of rouble is unprofitable, they bear the losses.” “Too optimistic recovery will not allow the ruble and the Russian fiscal authorities”, — said the analyst.
At the same time, she believes that after a meeting held in the last Saturday meeting of OPEC+ and the extension of the new deal on the reduction of oil production for another month (July) you can expect the price of Brent crude oil “to the end of June in the range of $40-45”. “The constraints for more sustainable growth factor is the deterioration of relations between the US and China, as well as the expectation of the second wave of the pandemic,” warns Milchakova.
In this case, IAC senior analyst “Alpari” Anna Bodrova says that the ruble became the “king” first week in June. “In the pair dollar/ruble is confirmed downtrend, but the potential of rapid reduction is still limited by the laws of logic, the price of oil and the presence in the domestic considerable budget deficit,” — says the expert.
As the economist States “BCS Premier” Anton Pokatovich, the ruble ended the week “near the levels of 68.5 per dollar”. “On Monday, the ruble would be formed in the range of 67.5-70 rubles per dollar”, — experts predict.
In his view, “in favor of the ruble will perform the General market sentiment, which can move in the direction of optimism.” Moreover, specifies the analyst, this week “the debt market can also increase the price rise”.
we also Recall that the Russian national currency in March of this year has significantly depreciated against the dollar and the Euro. Strong pressure on the rouble had a General panic in the financial markets due to the rapid spread of the pandemic coronavirus infection COVID-19 and concerns about its impact on the global economy, and a collapse in oil prices.
So, the strong devaluation of the Russian currency occurred on March 7 on the international Forex market, after the day before the deal collapsed OPEC+, — countries of the Alliance are unable to agree on cutting oil production, nor of the extension of the deal for a longer period (1 April 2020). Then, on March 9, 2020, the financial and oil markets suffered “black Monday”, and on 18 March, the market embraced a “black Wednesday” with yet another collapse of oil prices, the Russian national currency in the course of trading on the Moscow stock exchange has updated (at the time) a record low against the dollar and Euro since February of 2016, 81 and 88 million, respectively.
we Add that the real effective exchange rate of the ruble (inflation-adjusted) in April 2020 rose 0.1 percent against foreign currencies relative to the previous month. In this case the real rate of the ruble against the dollar fell during this period by 1.6%, the Euro by 0.6%. However, for the first 4 months of the current year the real effective exchange rate of the ruble fell by 11%, and the dollar — by 14.3%, and the Euro by 12.9%.
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