Analyst: the Situation for the Russian consumer will continue to deteriorate

Consumer sentiment in Russia show a negative trend, and the situation “will definitely be worse”. This opinion was expressed IATS senior analyst “Alpari” Anna Bodrov.

She notes that “the consumer confidence index in Russia for the second quarter of 2020 fell to minus 30% compared to the first quarter, returning the country to the five European States with the weakest consumer sentiment”.

“In previous crises, the consumer confidence indicator have been worse. However, this time it is unclear how long-term instability in the employment sector, for example, and what measures will be ready to go to the government to reduce the budget. About 43% of Russians, according to recent polls, talk about the deterioration of their financial situation, and only a quarter of them convinced, in the course of the year the situation stabiliziruemost”, — stated in the review of the expert.

she said, “consumers in Russia are clearly suffering: with a low level of income (and where high and sustained if the labor market continues to shake?) and the growth of retail prices purchasing power in recent years has deteriorated significantly”.

this specifies Bodrov, “the hardest part, according to the HSE, account for most economically active people aged 30-49 years.” “The deterioration in consumer sentiment here — a bad signal for the economy in General. First, this age group is more inclined to take entrepreneurial risks, and could “pull” the economy, but now this will not happen. Second, this group “is sponsoring” youth in the form of pupils and students and supports seniors,” explains the analyst.

She predicts that “in the second half the situation for the consumer will definitely deteriorate, so the increase in the share of pessimists here — a matter of time”.

Recall that the Russian economy in February—March 2020 was under the powerful impact of two negative factors — the rapid spread of the pandemic coronavirus infection COVID-19 and its deleterious effect on the global economy and collapse in oil prices. Against this background, the rouble significantly depreciated against the dollar and the Euro. Reacting to the situation, the government and the Bank of Russia adopted several packages of measures to support the economy and citizens.

may 11, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the end of may 12, a single period of days off, entered March 30, in the fight against COVID-19.

on 2 June Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin reported on the nationwide state plan for the recovery of the Russian economy in 2020-2021 years, noting in particular that the cost of the plan will amount to about 5 trillion roubles. June 19, Putin was sent a revised draft of the national plan.

July 2, Deputy Minister of Finance of the Russian Federation Vladimir Kolychev said that the total cost of the measures (the bailout package), aimed at combating the spread of coronavirus infection in Russia and mitigating economic impacts from restrictions imposed, estimated to be worth about 4 trillion rubles. According to him, the main focus of the budget measures were made on several fronts: strengthening health systems, supporting citizens and businesses, the balancing of regional budgets.

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