Coming August will be characterized by “total turbulence in the currency, stock and commodity markets”, and “high risks of geopolitical confrontation and new sanctions wars”. This opinion was expressed by the “Rosbalt” the head of IAC “Alpari” Alexander Razuvaev.
However, in his view, “the main risk is, of course, the second wave of the pandemic (coronavirus infection COVID-19 — ed.)”. “If it happens, the global economy is likely to get the main recession of the 21st century with mass unemployment, a sharp increase in poverty, etc. to Solve the problem of cheap money will not work. The world is on the brink, just about leading politicians and economists prefer not to say”, — the expert believes.
moreover, he warns about the risks “of direct military conflict between Turkey and Greece that will be very negative for the Euro and the Turkish Lira”. “On the brink of war, Armenia and Azerbaijan. This conflict affects Russia and, respectively, the Russian ruble and the index of Mosuri, and again Turkey,” says the analyst.
He also drew attention to the high probability of “escalation of trade war, the United States and China, the US and the EU, the introduction by the US of new sanctions against Russia.” “The bill DASKA (S. 482, Defending American Security from Kremlin Aggression Act of 2019), which the authors Republican Lindsey Graham and Democrat Bob Menendez called a “sanction from hell” calls to ban foreign investors to invest in Russian debt. Moreover, in contrast to the already existing sanctions, under the restrictions should not fall only new issues of foreign currency securities, but also ruble-denominated debt (OFZ bonds) and secondary market”, says Razuvaev.
Meanwhile, he continues, “speculators begin pricing out the possible risks of the appearance on the market Persian oil”. “With high probability, in case of victory at the November (presidential) elections in the United States (Democrat) Joe Biden will soften or cancel sanctions against Iran. The result is up to two million barrels per day of new oil supplies can get into the market. To quickly restore oil production of Iran is unlikely. However, Tehran could increase the supply almost immediately. The fact that the tanker drifting off the coast, Tehran has amassed 54 million barrels, and another 60 million — drenched in ground storage tanks which are filled almost to capacity,”- says the expert.
At the same time, he said, “gold will continue to be the center of attention”. “For six months the inflow of client funds in buying gold ETF has exceeded $40 billion, and the stocks of physical metal on their balance sheets reached 3.6 thousand tons, which is more than the amount held in the reserves of Russia and China combined (2.3 and 1.9 thousand tons respectively). In favor of gold are also constantly emerging in the market talk about a possible large-scale devaluation of the us dollar. Probably, the threshold of $2000 will be taken soon enough” — does not preclude the analyst.