Analysts: Ruble will support oil and taxes, but then — weakening

the Russian national currency in the beginning of this week is likely to support oil prices, as well as tax period and preparation of companies to pay dividends. Such opinion was expressed by economist “BCS Premier” Anton Pokatovich

He predicts that “on Monday, the ruble would be formed in the range of 71.5-73 rubles per dollar”. “In addition to the oil support in the ruble would act as a support of the tax period, and the training companies to pay dividends. Support from the debt market also will continue”, — stated in the review of the expert.

meanwhile, “to a more distant time horizon, he expects “the return of the ruble exchange rate to a moderate weakening”.

In this case, IAC senior analyst “Alpari” Anna Bodrov believes that “expensive ruble useless”, and that, in her view, “we need to remember as an axiom, and to cease to resist”. “It (the expensive ruble — ed.) is bad for the budget deficit, uninteresting exporters and detrimental to domestic production”, — says the expert.

it is estimated that at the beginning of this week the dollar will trade in the range of 72-75 rubles.

we also Recall that the Russian national currency since the beginning of this year has significantly depreciated against the dollar and the Euro. Strong pressure on the rouble had a General panic in the financial markets due to the rapid spread of the pandemic coronavirus infection COVID-19 and concerns about its impact on the global economy, and a collapse in oil prices.

So, the strong devaluation of the Russian currency occurred on March 7 on the international Forex market, after the day before the deal collapsed OPEC+, — countries of the Alliance are unable to agree on cutting oil production, nor of the extension of the deal for a longer period (1 April 2020). Then, on March 9 2020, the financial and oil markets suffered “black Monday”, and on 18 March, the market embraced a “black Wednesday” with yet another collapse of oil prices, the Russian national currency in the course of trading on the Moscow stock exchange has updated (at the time) a record low against the dollar and Euro since February of 2016, 81 and 88 million, respectively.

we Add that the real effective exchange rate of the ruble (inflation-adjusted) in March 2020 fell by 11.4% against foreign currencies relative to the previous month. In this case the real exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar fell during the reporting period, by 12.2% against the Euro by 13.4%. For the first quarter of the current year the real effective rouble rate decreased by 11.5%, to USD — by 13.3%, to Euro — by 12.5%.

On Monday the Central Bank of Russia set the official dollar exchange rate at around 71,8804 ruble, Euro — ruble 78,4431.

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