“I do not believe in a risk of recession”, declared the minister on France Inter, adding that he “remains very cautious because everything will depend on what can happen in Ukraine, on the evolution in a certain number of ‘other countries, notably China’.
He plans to revise the government’s official growth forecast in a few weeks, when presenting a draft amending budget. It is still 4% at this stage, while several institutions have already lowered their forecast several times.
The IMF is now counting on growth of 2.9% for France, the European Commission on 3.1%, while the Banque de France forecasts between 2.8% and 3.4%, depending on the evolution of energy price.
In the first quarter, the French gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.2%, and inflation, which exceeded 5% over one year in May, slows down household consumption, the main driver of French growth.
Concerns are also growing in other major economies, particularly in the United States – where GDP contracted by 1.5% in the first quarter – and in China, where the Covid epidemic is penalizing activity.