Unless it finds enough allies on the opposition benches, which seems unlikely, the executive will have to resolve to force a passage, without a vote, by resorting to article 49-3 of the Constitution.

Aware of the risk, he has multiplied gestures of goodwill towards opposition parliamentarians, displaying a desire for consultation, in particular through the “Bercy dialogues”. These preceded the finalization of the finance bill which will be presented to the Council of Ministers on Monday, a first.

After three years of exceptional expenditure linked to the health crisis which increased the debt, the momentum of the recovery, already slowed down since last autumn by supply problems, was broken by the energy crisis caused by the war in Ukraine, and inflation that has reached levels not seen in more than 35 years.

If the government does not reactivate the “whatever the cost”, it wants to continue to protect individuals and businesses against soaring energy prices.

By itself, the “tariff shield” to limit the rise in gas and electricity tariffs to 15% will cost 16 billion euros in public finances, once the contribution of renewable energy producers, which have become very profitable thanks to the surge in kilowatt-hour prices.

“We are going to have a hard time getting used to all these support measures in relation to the prices of gas, electricity, fuel,” François Ecalle told AFP. Former rapporteur on the situation of public finances and author of the Fipeco blog, he pleads for support measures reserved for households in difficulty, such as the energy check, so as not to encourage the consumption of fossil fuels.

– Debt burden –

Despite a gloomy economic outlook, with growth not expected to exceed 1% in 2023 and risks of recession pointed out by the Banque de France and many economists, the government intends to contain the public deficit to 5% of gross domestic product (GDP). , before bringing it back below 3% of the European criteria by 2027.

For the Minister of the Economy Bruno Le Maire, “this is the condition of the credibility of the trajectory of our public finances for the whole of the five-year period”.

Next year, budget appropriations should increase from 21.7 billion to 346.5 billion euros, according to a document from the Bercy dialogues, obtained by AFP from a parliamentary source.

The Labor and employment mission would see its expenditure increase by 6.7 billion euros, due in particular to efforts related to support for learning, while the Ecology, sustainable development and mobility item would be up by 6 .6 billion.

But the expenditure that is expected to increase the most is the debt burden, up 17 billion euros compared to 2021 to 57.6 billion, just behind school education with 60.2 billion, according to the spending ceilings. considered by the Ministry of Finance in August. The subject is at the heart of concerns as the interest rate on the French 10-year loan reached a record level on Tuesday since January 2014, at more than 2.5%.

– Tax super profits –

To save money, the government has decided to spread over two years the abolition of the contribution on the added value of companies (CVAE), a production tax which employers expected to disappear from 2023. This spreading allows it to save 4 billion euros next year.

However, some municipalities fear that they will not receive sufficient compensation for this loss of tax resources. And more generally, local authorities are asking for financial support to cope with soaring energy prices or the revaluation of the salaries of public officials.

For the opposition parties, an additional resource must be found by taxing the “superprofits” of companies, beyond the energy sector alone, for which a measure is being studied at European level.

At Nupes, “we think that it is not constitutional to go and touch a single sector”, explains the LFI president of the finance committee of the Assembly, Eric Coquerel. The left alliance is therefore working on “turnover thresholds” which would not allow multinationals like Total to escape tax by not declaring profits in France.