the Official rate of dollar established by Bank of Russia since June 26, raised by about 63 cents to 69,466 ruble. While the single European currency gained 30 cents, and tomorrow it will 78,0589 ruble.
As noted by the chief analyst of PSB Bogdan Zvarich, “the decline in oil prices and weak demand for risky assets will put pressure on the national currency, which will allow the pair dollar/ruble in early trading to rise in the district 69.5 ruble.”
moreover, does not exclude IAC analyst “Alpari” Vladislav Antonov, “if at auction in Europe negative dynamics of stock indices continues, the pair dollar/ruble should expect a test of 70 rubles per dollar”.
for his part, head of data analysis CEX.IO Broker Yuriy Mazur admits that “in the absence of positive in the oil market, the ruble may weaken to the dollar to a level 70-71”.
we also Recall that the Russian national currency since the beginning of this year has significantly depreciated against the dollar and the Euro. Strong pressure on the rouble had a General panic in the financial markets due to the rapid spread of the pandemic coronavirus infection COVID-19 and concerns about its impact on the global economy, and a collapse in oil prices.
So, the strong devaluation of the Russian currency occurred on March 7 on the international Forex market, after the day before the deal collapsed OPEC+, — countries of the Alliance are unable to agree on cutting oil production, nor of the extension of the deal for a longer period (1 April 2020). Then, on March 9, 2020, the financial and oil markets suffered “black Monday”, and on 18 March, the market embraced a “black Wednesday” with yet another collapse of oil prices, the Russian national currency in the course of trading on the Moscow stock exchange has updated (at the time) a record low against the dollar and Euro since February of 2016, 81 and 88 million, respectively.
we Add that the real effective exchange rate of the ruble (inflation-adjusted) in may 2020 rose by 3.8% against foreign currencies relative to the previous month. In this case the real rate of the ruble against the dollar rose during this period by 4.7%, to Euro — on 3,8%. However, for the first 5 months of the current year the real effective exchange rate of the ruble fell by 7.8%, and the dollar — by 9.9%, and the Euro by 9.7%.
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