the Official rate of dollar established by Bank of Russia from July 24, increased by 17.5 cents to 70,963 of the ruble. While the single European currency gained from 60 cents, and tomorrow it will 82,1893 ruble.
according to head of Department of the analysis of banks and money market IK “VELES Capital” Yuri Kravchenko, “on most U.S. exchanges in emerging markets on Thursday afternoon observed the aversion to risk and the strengthening of the American currency”. “The ruble is no exception and is declining against the USD, despite the positive dynamics of prices for oil and positive dynamics in the stock markets in Europe and futures in the United States,” the review says an analyst.
However, the Director of the Academy of management Finance and investment Arseniy Dadashev, “market participants expect that on Friday the Bank of Russia to decide on the next reduction of the key rate to 4% and strive to gain a coveted OFZ (Federal loan bonds — ed.) to the fall of profitability”. “The inflow of foreign capital together with the exchange operations of domestic exporters in the framework of the tax period will mitigate pressure on the exchange rate”, — the expert believes.
overall, the senior analyst “Alpari Eurasia” Vadim Iosub expect that today the dollar will trade in the range of 70.0-71.4 ruble, the European currency — of 80.7 82.3 per ruble.
we also Recall that the Russian national currency since the beginning of this year has significantly depreciated against the dollar and the Euro. Strong pressure on the rouble had a General panic in the financial markets due to the rapid spread of the pandemic coronavirus infection COVID-19 and concerns about its impact on the global economy, and a collapse in oil prices.
So, the strong devaluation of the Russian currency occurred on March 7 on the international Forex market, after the day before the deal collapsed OPEC+, — Alliance countries are unable Dogoveritsa no additional reduction in oil production, nor of the extension of the deal for a longer period (1 April 2020). Then, on March 9, 2020, the financial and oil markets suffered “black Monday”, and on 18 March, the market embraced a “black Wednesday” with yet another collapse of oil prices, the Russian national currency in the course of trading on the Moscow stock exchange has updated (at the time) a record low against the dollar and Euro since February of 2016, 81 and 88 million, respectively.
we Add that the real effective exchange rate of the ruble (inflation-adjusted) in June 2020 rose 2.9% against foreign currencies relative to the previous month. In this case the real rate of the ruble against the dollar rose during this period by 5.2%, to Euro — by 1.7%. However, for the first 6 months of the current year the real effective ruble exchange rate decreased by 5%.
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