The day started badly for the presidential camp with the defeat in Guadeloupe of the Secretary of State for the Sea Justine Benin, beaten in the 2nd constituency, with 41.35% of the votes behind Christian Baptiste (DVG), supported by Nupes , elected with 58.65%.
In accordance with an unwritten rule but already applied in 2017 by Emmanuel Macron, Ms. Benin will have, barely named, to leave the government.
Other ministers are under the threat of the same fate, while they are fifteen, including Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne, on the starting line.
This is particularly the case for Amélie de Montchalin (Ecological Transition), in great danger in Essonne, as for the boss of En Marche and Minister of the Public Service Stanislas Guerini or for the Minister Delegate for Europe Clément Beaune, both in Paris.
More than 48 million voters are called to the polls on Sunday. Polling stations will close at 6:00 p.m. and 8:00 p.m. in major cities. The first estimates are expected at 8:00 p.m.
This second round comes to close a long electoral sequence, opened on April 10 by the first round of the presidential election, which had seen the broad re-election of Emmanuel Macron ahead of Marine Le Pen.
But the party looks more uncertain in the legislative elections after the surprise breakthrough of the alliance of leftist parties Nupes and the far right.
In the first round, the outgoing majority, which is running under the label Ensemble! (LREM, MoDem, Agir and Horizons), arrived neck and neck around 26% of the votes with the left alliance (LFI, PS, EELV and PCF).
Marine Le Pen’s RN totaled 18.7%, or 5.5 points more than in 2017, ahead of Les Républicains and its UDI allies, who fell to 11.3%.
There are many uncertainties for this second round: what score for the left? If the presidential coalition wins, will its majority be absolute – it takes 289 deputies out of 577 – or relative, as the polls do not rule out?
– “Voice reserves” –
While more than one in two voters (52.5%) abstained for the first round, mobilization is a decisive issue in this hot weekend.
In the 2017 legislative elections, abstention reached 51.3% in the first round and 57.4% in the second, a record since 1958.
The Ministry of the Interior must give the first figures of the participation rate at noon.
“Will the Nupes succeed in mobilizing the youngest who did not vote in the first round?” For the outgoing majority “are there reservations in a legitimist electorate who would not have voted thinking that Emmanuel Macron’s victory was acquired?” Asked the president of the European Union at the end of the week. Elabe Bernard Sananès Institute.
The voters will also say if the Republicans, who collapsed in the presidential election, are still able to weigh in the Assembly, even if some see them in a pivotal position in the event of a relative majority of the presidential camp which should then appeal to the right to vote for his texts.
Finally, the ballot will tell if the National Rally obtains a group, i.e. at least 15 deputies, which gives more means and speaking time. The far-right party only succeeded once in its history, from 1986 to 1988, during the time of the National Front, thanks to proportional representation.
Be that as it may, a reshuffle is expected after the election, if only for the posts of state secretaries, which have not yet been filled.