Cold sweats for the presidential majority? According to a latest Elabe poll for L’Express and BFM TV, in partnership with SFR, Emmanuel Macron is not certain to obtain an absolute majority on June 19. Hounded by the union of the left which is strengthening its positions week after week in the polls, the presidential coalition is no longer as certain of being in a position of dominance as it was predicted a few weeks ago. The Republic on the move, the MoDem, Horizons and Agir could obtain an absolute majority by winning between 280 and 320 seats, i.e. a hemorrhage of at least thirty seats compared to 2017.
The cause of this drop? The rallying of the left parties behind the leader of the formation of France Insoumise, Jean-Luc Mélenchon. The New Popular Ecological and Social Union (Nupes) could obtain between 165 and 190 seats, making it a powerful opposition force within the hemicycle. Arrived in second position in the presidential election, the National Rally would strengthen its presence in Parliament since it should at least triple its number of deputies (between 17 and 42 seats compared to 2017). The Les Républicains party could be the collateral victim of this political recomposition since the movement, still in power 15 years ago, would only have 40 to 60 deputies.
Of the 49 million voters expected at the polls on Sunday, 55 to 51% of them may not turn out, if Elabe estimates are to be believed. This would be an abstention comparable to that recorded in 2017 and up 10 points compared to 2012. At the same time, as we get closer to the first round, the certainty of the choice strengthens. It has increased by 4 points in one week: 74% of voters say they are sure of their choice, 26% could change their minds between now and the election. A state of affairs that does not upset the distribution of voting intentions, which remain close to those of recent weeks.
Together (27%) and Nupes (26.5%) are in the lead, they have progressed by 2.5 points and 1.5 points respectively. A surge from which the National Rally suffered, still third in voting intentions, but suffering a loss of 2.5 points (19.5%). The dynamic confirms that the 1st round should above all be the scene of the confrontation between the formations of Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Emmanuel Macron.
Sample of 2,000 people representative of residents of mainland France aged 18 and over, including 1,876 registered on the electoral lists. Internet survey from June 8 to 9, 2022. The representativeness of the sample was ensured according to the quota method applied to the following variables: gender, age, socio-professional category, region of residence and urban area category. For questions of voting intention, only persons registered on the electoral lists and intending to vote are taken into account. For questions of opinion, the entire sample is taken into account. Margin of error between 1.0 and 3.0 percentage points.
