Will the alliance of the left around Jean-Luc Mélenchon succeed in its bet to arrive at the top of the first round? Candidates and sympathizers of the coalition of the New People’s Ecological and Social Union (Nupes), who scrutinize the polls with interest, want to believe in the affirmative. According to the latest opinion poll published by our partner Elabe, the formation bringing together rebellious France, the Socialist Party and the ecologists is neck and neck with the camp of Emmanuel Macron, in the voting intentions of the first round of legislative elections, scheduled for Sunday 12 June. Nupes is credited with 27.5%, slightly ahead. The grouping of parties LREM, MoDem, Horizons and Agir is on the heels of the left with 27%.
A slight advance which is largely explained by the rallying of voters who voted blank, void or abstained in the first round of the presidential election. They are 35% to say they are able to vote for the coalition led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon when they are only 5% to express a comparable project in favor of the outgoing majority. In the rest of the hemicycle, the National Rally, whose candidate Marine Le Pen failed in the second round of the presidential election, as in 2017, is approaching 21.5% of voting intentions, a score close to that obtained during the first round of the Élysée deadline. Majority in the Senate, the Les Républicains party is credited with 10% while Eric Zemmour’s party, Reconquête, would weigh 5% and Lutte Ouvrière or the NPA 2%. Another important lesson emerges from the Elabe survey. 47% of respondents say they are absolutely sure they will vote and 41% will probably or certainly not vote. These two figures provide information on the level of abstention which could affect the legislative elections.
If the first round seems to give birth to a tight confrontation between the left and Emmanuel Macron, the second seems much more to the advantage of the president. According to Elabe’s projection of the distribution of seats built on the basis of the balance of power measured in the intention to vote, the result of the previous elections and the political history of each of the constituencies, the majority would return to the ranks of La République en Marche, MoDem, Horizons and Agir. It would even be absolute since the outgoing majority would obtain 290 to 330 seats, i.e. between 20 to 60 deputies less compared to 2017. The Nupes would become the leading opposition force, enjoying 160 to 180 seats.
In the ranks of the Republicans, the shower which is preparing should be cold. The party founded by Nicolas Sarkozy could lose nearly 100 deputies and hold between 25 and 50 constituencies. Above all, the right of government could hold a parliamentary group less provided than the National Rally, a first in its history. The Lepenist political party should see its ranks replenished compared to 2017. 35 to 65 seats could be won by Marine Le Pen and her deputies and thus gain up to 57 seats in the hemicycle.
36% of respondents believe that the appointment of Elisabeth Borne as Prime Minister, thirty-one years after Edith Cresson, is a good thing for the country. Conversely, 26% consider this appointment to be bad news, half of whom find it a very bad thing. 38% say they have no opinion. They are 44% in the ranks mélenchonistes to declare that it is a bad decision, 39% at Marine Le Pen and 5% of the walkers disapprove the choice of Emmanuel Macron.
Beyond the question relating to the person of the former Minister of Ecology, nearly one in two French people (47%) would like the Prime Minister to have a more important role than during Emmanuel Macron’s first five-year term. . 38% call for a distribution of powers comparable to that observed between 2017 and 2022.
*Sample of 1,793 people representative of residents of mainland France aged 18 and over, including 1,668 registered on the electoral lists. Questioning by Internet from May 16 to 18, 2022. The representativeness of the sample was ensured according to the quota method applied to the following variables: gender, age, socio-professional category, region of residence and urban area category. For questions of voting intention, only persons registered on the electoral lists and intending to vote are taken into account. For questions of opinion, the entire sample is taken into account. Margin of error between 1.0 and 3.1 percentage points.
