Wishing to become Prime Minister, Jean-Luc Mélenchon can pride himself on having transformed his personal ambition into electoral dynamics. According to an Elabe poll for L’Express and BFM TV, in partnership with SFR, the alliance of various left-wing parties that constitutes the New Popular Ecological and Social Union (Nupes) would arrive at the top of the voting intentions in the first round of legislative elections (25%). Just ahead of the Together movement, the meeting of parties wishing to give a parliamentary majority to President Emmanuel Macron (24.5%). In third position, the National Rally is doing well with 22%, while the candidates of the Les Républicains party (12.5%) and especially those of Reconquête (4%) seem to be left behind.
The high score given to the Nupes is not however based on a mass mobilization of all the voters of Jean-Luc Mélenchon (66%), but on those certain to vote, since the latter favor 78% an alliance candidate. The most mobilized voters are those of Emmanuel Macron (72%) and Valérie Pécresse (72%), which does not however benefit the Les Républicains party. Regarding the general mobilization of the electorate, 44% of French people say they are “certain” to vote, while 13% are seriously considering it.
The presidential party LREM and its allies would, according to the Elabe poll, have a better chance of winning in the second round, but without being sure of obtaining an absolute majority. The projections give the Macronist alliance a range of seats between 245 and 315, the majority being at 289. The Nupes, it would win between 155 and 180 seats, which would not allow Jean-Luc Mélenchon to be appointed to Matignon. The third force that is the National Rally would be able to form a parliamentary group, even in the lowest estimate, since the party of Marine Le Pen would glean between 35 and 65 seats, against only 8 today.
If 70% of voters say they are sure of their choice, a third could still change their minds between now and the election, the first round of which is scheduled for June 12. Legislative elections whose outcome remains an enigma for 35% of French people, while 26% anticipate a victory for the presidential camp.
“Sample of 2,000 people representative of residents of mainland France aged 18 and over, including 1,884 registered on the electoral lists. Questioning by Internet from May 30 to June 1, 2022. The representativeness of the sample was ensured according to the quota method applied to the following variables: sex, age, socio-professional category, region of residence and urban area category For questions of voting intention, only persons registered on the electoral lists and intending to going to vote are taken into account. For opinion questions, the entire sample is taken into account. Margin of error between 1.0 and 3.0 percentage points.”