The dollar may rise to 90 rubles in the case that the world will begin a second outbreak of the coronavirus and the authorities will again have to impose restrictions on its distribution. Such forecasts are provided by experts of the Center for macroeconomic analysis and short-term forecasting (CMASF). In its base case scenario says allows for “a significant weakening of the ruble” in the second half of 2020, influenced by the new decline in oil prices, a seasonal increase in domestic demand for foreign currency (purchases of import goods) and capital flight from emerging markets including the Russian one. According to analysts, since the fourth quarter of 2020 and 2022, the national currency will fluctuate in the corridor of RUB 87 — 91 rubles per dollar and only in 2023 will strengthen to 83 RUB — 87 rubles per dollar. While in the optimistic scenario, the dollar in the fourth quarter exceeds 85 RUB, in the pessimistic — the mark of 100 RUB the Head of analysis and forecasting of macroeconomic processes CMASF Dmitry Belousov explained that in the baseline scenario in the fall and winter laid the second wave of the quarantine restrictions in the world, so will be very low oil prices, according to RBC. In addition, the weakening of the ruble will lead to the seasonal demand for currency. According to Belousov, in the second half of the year always is a purchase of foreign currency by importers and the population under the Christmas holidays. According to the assumptions of the forecast CMASF, Russia’s existing quarantine measures will last until the end of June, and in the fourth quarter expected another outbreak of disease duration, which may last about two months and deprive a major city of up to 20% of GRP (gross regional product). As noted Belousov at the beginning of the year exchange rate stability was partially supported by the arrival of old currency for oil transactions, which were concluded at prices “up to a spectacular collapse”, as well as sales of foreign currency by the state. However, in the second half of the year, these factors will probably not be, the expert believes. At the same time, he said, the Central Bank this year will continue to implement moderately loose monetary policy, not to “go against the market.” According to the forecasts says, from the end of 2020 to late 2021 the price of oil will fluctuate at the level of $35-37, the demand for it will grow slowly, and restrictions in exports will continue until the end of 2021. We add that the Bank of Russia lowered from 4 June the official exchange rate of the U.S. dollar, 64 cents to 68,3413 of the ruble. Thus, the single European currency lost almost 15.5 dime, and tomorrow it will 76,6243 of the ruble.
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