the International energy Agency (IEA) predicts decline in global oil demand in 2020 at 8.1 million barrels per day.
thus, according to the expectations of the Agency, world oil demand will increase by a record 5.7 million barrels per day in 2021. However, IEA believes that oil demand will not recover fully until at least 2022, reports “Interfax” with reference to the report of the Agency.
“this report provides the first forecast of the Agency regarding 2021. We expect demand growth to 5.7 million barrels per day year-on-year, the biggest annual increase in history, in connection with the return to the normal mode, activities in major sectors of the economy”, — quotes PRIME excerpts from the document.
the IEA also suggests that in June, world oil production will fall to 86.4 million barrels per day, which will be the minimum level since the beginning of 2010, while in may the supply of oil in the world fell by 11.8 million barrels per day after a record decline in OPEC production+ and stops businesses in the US and several countries.
In General, the results of the current year, the Agency predicts fall in oil production in the world at 7.2 million barrels per day and an increase of 1.7 million in 2021 if the easing of OPEC+ and actively producing in a number of countries outside the Alliance.
In the report, the IEA also noted that OPEC Alliance+ in the first month of his new deal has fulfilled its conditions by 89%, reducing the oil production at 9.4 million barrels per day, while Russia has fulfilled its obligation by 97% and Saudi Arabia at 100%.
Recall that from the beginning of this year on the global oil market rode several waves of falling prices for “black gold”. The negative situation caused by a whole complex of factors: a General overproduction of raw materials, a sharp drop in demand due to the rapid spread of coronavirus infection COVID-19 (March 11, was declared a pandemic) and concerns about its impact on the global economy, as well as the collapse of the deal, OPEC+ (officially from April 1, but in fact, after fruitless negotiations of the countries-oil producers at a meeting on March 6 in Vienna). Just last circumstance was the trigger to the collapse in oil prices. Moreover, Saudi Arabia announced plans to increase production and lower oil prices. Later, the desire to lower the prices declared Iraq, Kuwait, UAE and Nigeria.
For the first quarter of 2020, the price of Brent crude fell by 65.6%, while WTI rose by 66.5%. And at the end of March the cost of June futures on Brent fell below $22 per barrel (to $of 21.72), that is, to at least March 2002, and the may futures for WTI to us $20.1.
on April 12 OPEC countries+ finally agreed on a new deal, joined by 23 States. The agreement will be valid for two years, from may 1, 2020 to may 1, 2022-th. In may—June this year, the production cuts will amount to 9.7 million barrels per day (from October 2018), then — until the end of 2020 — 8 million barrels, and 6 million by the end of April 2022. While Russia and Saudi Arabia base count will be 11 million barrels per day (of the Russian Federation in the first 2 months will reduce production at 2.5 million barrels per day). New business OPEC+ was a forced reaction of oil producing countries on the situation in the market and pressure from the United States. Overall, however, it does not cover the volume decline in world demand for the same in the market have accumulated huge reserves of raw materials. Nevertheless, assured the head of the Ministry of energy Alexander Novak, if necessary, the parties to the transaction can take additional measures to stabilize the situation on the market.
on June 6, the member countries of OPEC+ extended on a month — until the end of July — the period of validity of the agreement to reduce oil production to 9.7 million barrels per day.
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