the Institute of international economy and international relations (IMEMO), Russian Academy of Sciences and Interfax group has announced a joint project which is implemented with the support of the Gorchakov Fund in the framework of the “Primako readings”.
the Theme of the first session in online mode, — “Russia and pochkovidnye the world.” It was attended by Alexey Arbatov, head, center for international security, IMEMO ran; Alexander Dynkin, the President of the IMEMO ran, academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences; Fyodor Lukyanov, chief editor of the magazine “Russia in global politics”. In the role of moderator was Mikhail Shvydkoi, special presidential envoy for international cultural cooperation.
Experts discussed the problems of “a new political geometry”, which started to form long before the pandemic, the changing threats and about the system of international treaties — how they are important today, and how the U.S. withdrawal from many of them will affect the security balance in the world.
the Speakers were unanimous in the view that today “bipolar” world of the system becomes obvious. China recently has largely changed its rhetoric in politics, striving not only to economic, but also political and military leadership. In the United States with the arrival of trump’s increased emphasis on the greatness of America, with an emphasis on the containment of China in the economy, ideology and security. Occurs structural asymmetry: China’s compromises, and the United States want to stop, to slow down its growth, and not to negotiate. This asymmetry is part palkovicevo world order, and, according to participants of session, it is very dangerous.
as for Europe, the pandemic exposed the historical asymmetry between the values of the Europeanization and nationalization of interests. Another attempt to bring a new community of “European people”, said Alexander Dynkin, yet were not successful. According to him, national identity and historical memory are different. Fedor LukiJanov believes that national interests and before there was “just has been embedded in international structures and used them, and now they have it was not profitable”.
Russia with 3% of world GDP, of course, can claim to global leadership, while maintains strategic parity with the United States and the leadership in the majority of defense technologies to China.
Raised by the experts and the issues of strategic nuclear arms. Academician Arbatov drew attention to the US withdrawal from the most important treaties and agreements. Particularly, he focused his attention on the Treaty on the nonproliferation of nuclear weapons, calling it the most versatile of all the Treaty concerning disarmament. He recalled that it involves almost all countries in the UN — 191.
“Through this agreement we now have the world’s nine nuclear powers and not 30 as had been predicted,” said Arbatov. However, he noted that in Washington there is serious talk about withdrawal from the Treaty on comprehensive ban of nuclear tests. If the U.S. withdraws from it and start test, it will crash not only the Treaty, but the NPT. And if that happens, the world after a pandemic, it may be discarded in the 50-ies, when there was no system of control over nuclear weapons. Thus, the expert approached the answer to the General question: how dangerous new bipolarity and whether it is necessary to Russia? Arbatov believes that for Russia it will be doubly dangerous, because today we are not one of the poles. “We need the most in the current situation to play the role of an independent centre forces,” — said the expert.
Fyodor Lukyanov observes that the world is characterized by total dissociation and at the same time a relationship. The feeling of collapse is due primarily to the fact that we enacted a global policy in the middle of the last century are accustomed to high order. Despite all the extremely dangerous manifestation which is carried with a cold war and nuclear standoff, there were many rules of conduct that were generally respected.
But if to speak about bipolarity, which may occur — it is, according to Lukyanov, is not such as we imagine, based on the experience of the second half of the twentieth century. Then the rivalry between the USSR and the United States have served in some degree a factor of stabilization of relations, they lined up the balance. “Now it is not. China due to the specifics of his worldview, poses no ideological challenge to the US and the West and to act in the same paradigm of the capitalist economy that the United States,” he explained. And it’s dangerous because it reminds of the causes of the wars of the previous epoch of imperialism.
the project Participants expect that in the framework of the “Primako readings”, starting in 2015, the Agency will host a series of meetings of experts, political and public figures to discuss topical problems of international relations and the world economy in crisis.
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