the Institute’s research and expertise on the web.Russia downgraded the assessment of the fall of the Russian GDP from 3.8% to 4.5% by the end of 2020, but without the adoption of anti-crisis measures the scale of economic contraction would be even stronger. This conclusion is contained in the July forecast of economists, the corporations, seen by RBC.
experts believe that the termination of most of the stabilization measures at the end of the current year and the restrictive effect of fiscal rules will prevent a V-shaped rebound of the economy in 2021 and will keep GDP growth in the years 2021-2024 at a level not higher than 3%.
However, underlines the study, due to anti-crisis measures of the government of that institution VEB.Of the Russian Federation estimates a total of 3.4—3.5% of GDP, the decline in the economy in 2020 will be less than if the government did nothing: minus 4.5% versus minus 6.3 percent. The incentive of 1.8 percentage points is mainly due to the support of business revenue and secondarily of the population.
Volume three packages to support the economy announced by the government, economists VEB is estimated at 4 trillion rubles.
Analysts predict that the bottom point of falling of the Russian economy in 2020 will be in the second quarter, when GDP will shrink by 11% in annual terms, and in General for the year real incomes of Russians will fall by 4.1%.
we will Remind, last Friday, the Central Bank Chairman Elvira Nabiullina said at a press conference that the recovery of economic activity in Russia can take more than 1.5 years. “We continued easing of monetary policy in the first place, given that there are still risks of deviation of inflation down from 4% in 2021. It is associated with a significant decline in economic activity, drop in domestic and external demand”, — said the head of the Central Bank.
it is estimated that the recovery “will take more than 1.5 years, which will have a moderating influence on price dynamics”.
Before this on the same day the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia lowered the key rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% per annum. The rate was lowered for the fourth time this year and to a new historic low.
At the same time, the regulator expects that the Russian economy will shrink by the end of this year by 4.5 to 5.5%, but further growth is expected at 3.5 to 4.5% in 2021 and 2.5—3.5% in 2022. As noted by the Central Bank in its press release, “the restoration of the Russian economy will be gradual, given the phased lifting of restrictive measures”. “The ongoing recovery of business activity in General remains constrained and heterogeneous across industries and regions,” admits the Bank of Russia.
However, he laments, “weak external demand, together with restrictions under the deal, OPEC+ is reflected in the decline in exports that makes a negative contribution to the dynamics of economic activity.”
moreover, the regulator warned, “the path of further economic recovery may be unstable due to the falling income, cautious consumer behaviour, cautious business sentiment, as well as restrictions imposed by external demand.”
let’s Add that the Russian economy in February—March 2020 was under the powerful impact of two negative factors — the rapid spread of the pandemic coronavirus infection COVID-19 and its deleterious effect on the global economy and collapse in oil prices. Against this background, the rouble significantly depreciated against the dollar and the Euro. Reacting to the situation, the government and the Bank of Russia adopted several packages of measures to support the economy and citizens.
on 2 June Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin reported on the nationwide state plan for the recovery of the Russian economy in 2020-2021 years, noting in particular that the cost of the plan will amount to about 5 trillion roubles. June 19, Putin was sent a revised draft of the national plan.
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