the Overdue debt Russians on car loans in two months of mode isolation (April—may) increased “on record since the beginning of 2018, a 4.2%” and reached 51,9 billion rubles. These data are presented in the review of the National Association of professional collection agencies (NAPCA) and the Bureau of credit stories (BKI) “Equifax”.
the share of NPL 90+ (over 90 days) in the portfolio increased by 0.6 percentage points to 6.5%.
“the Number of overdue loans has also increased in April—may by 3.5% to 112 thousand units. Their share in the portfolio already exceeds 7.2 percent. In fact, every 13 car loan is in default, at the beginning of the year only 15 on each such loan was not paid”, — stated in the study.
the Experts also concluded that the two month regime of self-isolation, the portfolio of loans has decreased more than on 40 billion roubles. “This was a record decline over the past five years. If at the end of March 2020, the volume of loans exceeded 840,6 billion rubles, on the beginning of June, this figure was approximately 801 billion. Thus, in April—may the market lost nearly 5%”, — record dimensions.
In quantitative terms, the portfolio decreased 63.8 million (in percentage terms 4%) and was at the beginning of June, 1.5 million credits.
the review also notes that “fewer people can afford the car without the use of credit — at year-end approximately 60% of the cars will be sold on credit (in 2019 — 56%, in 2018 — 47%)”.
Recall that sales of new cars and light commercial (LCV) cars in Russia fell in June 2020 14.6% yoy (after the collapse of 51.8% in may and 72,4% in April) to 122,622 thousand units. For the first 6 months of this year in Russia were sold 635,959 thousand passenger autoAbila and LCV (minus 23.3% in annual terms), it follows from the estimates of the Committee automakers Association of European businesses.
at the end of February, the international rating Agency Investors Service Moody’s did not rule out a decline in sales of cars in Russia in the current year by 4%, “amid continued slow economic growth and lack of government stimulus”.
And at the end of April experts of the consulting company PwC did not rule out that the sales of new passenger cars in Russia by the end of this year may have fallen by 30% over the previous year to 1,142 million cars. In this scenario without taking into account stress factors for 2020 implies a decline of only 3.7% to 1.57 million vehicles.
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