Annual inflation in Russia in the coming months may be slightly accelerated, although the disinflationary factors become dominant, says the Bulletin of the Department of studies and forecasting of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.
“After accelerating in April to 3.1%, inflation in may slowed to 3%. Short-term proinflationary factors associated with the weakening of the ruble and a temporary surge in demand, decreases. This contributes to the fact that the ruble has played a big part of the March losses. At the same time amplified the effects of disinflationary factors in connection with the drawdown of income and demand from the population. Disinflationary factors become dominant, although annual inflation is likely some time will be accelerated” — suggests the expert of the Central Bank.
however, they point out that, “as of the third quarter, the expected rise in consumer prices adjusted for seasonality” will probably “lower than necessary for stabilizing inflation at 4%”.
we will Remind, past Friday the Governor of the Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina assured that there was no explosion of inflation in Russia due to the social measures of the government taken against the background of the pandemic coronavirus infection CIVID-19, will not. “In our view, no explosion of inflation is not likely that these government spending (increased in the framework of the state support of the population and business — ed.), they will compensate for those revenues, which have fallen people as a result of the restrictive measures, stop the operation of enterprises, underemployment and so forth,” — said the head of the Central Bank.
Nabiullina acknowledged that “inflation expectations have risen,” but “not so much and fairly quickly began to be adjusted”.
Earlier, the Chairman of the Bank of Russia suggested that the peak annual inflation in Russia could come in this summer. “What I would like to stress that without conducting the soft monetary policy as it is now, according to our estimates, inflation in 2021-2022 year may be below 4%, so we conduct soft monetary policy,” said Elvira.
let’s Add that the Russian economy in February—March 2020 was under the powerful impact of two negative factors — the rapid spread of the pandemic coronavirus infection COVID-19 and its deleterious effect on the global economy and collapse in oil prices. Against this background, the rouble significantly depreciated against the dollar and the Euro. Reacting to the situation, the government and the Bank of Russia adopted several packages of measures to support the economy and citizens.
may 11, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the end of may 12, a single period of days off, entered March 30, in the fight against COVID-19. He also announced the beginning of implementation of the third package of anti-crisis measures, under which the state, in particular, will increase targeted support for families with children, small businesses, individual entrepreneurs and self-employed. In addition, Putin instructed the government to prepare a national plan for long-term development of the economy, the recovery in employment and incomes.
on 27 may, the Minister of economic development (MED) of the Russian Federation Maxim Reshetnikov said that the total cost of anti-crisis measures to support the Russian economy, aimed at combating the impact of the pandemic coronavirus has reached 3.3 trillion rubles.
on 2 June Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin presented to the President a national plan for the recovery of the Russian economy in 2020-2021 years, noting in particular that the cost of the plan will be about 5 trillion rubles.
Stories about how you tried to get help from the Russian state in terms of coronaries and what came of it, email it to COVID-19@rosbalt.ru
