the highest risks of worsening employment conditions (pay cuts, forced to send on unpaid leave or transfer to part-time work, and finally, dismissal) are workers older than 45 years, the professionals at the Junior level, young employees and women. These are the results of the may survey of the Center for strategic research (CSR).
the First wave of layoffs affected staff, staff of administrative departments, marketing and advertising, RBC reports.
it says the founder and the head of the Agency HR4PR Olga Dementieva, ageism and sexism were before, but the crisis has exacerbated these trends. According to her, the first wave of cuts related to the posts that are duplicates of each other, “bloated departments” dismissed ineffective people who do not fulfill the KPIs (key performance indicators). Do you expect the main wave of cuts in summer and autumn.
Meanwhile the economic crisis in Russia caused by the pandemic coronavirus infection COVID-19, may return to the agenda of the “forgotten problem of mass unemployment”: the level threatens to jump to 8-10% of the workforce in the case of the implementation not an optimistic scenario. This is stated in the report of the Center for macroeconomic analysis and short-term forecasting.
the CMASF Experts do not exclude that during a prolonged pandemic mechanisms of adaptation are exhausted, and “the coming crisis may be the first, when to begin large-scale release of workers,” points RBC with reference to the study.
Recall that, according to Rosstat estimates, the number of unemployed in Russia is calculated according to ILO methodology, increased in April to 4.3 million vs. 3.4 million in March. The increase in the number of unemployed in April 2020 in annual terms (i.e. by April 2019) amounted to 21%, as compared to March 2020 and 23.4%. This implies that the unemployment rate in April was 5.8% of the labour force. This is the maximum recordü from April 2016.
However, the Confederation of labour of Russia is assured that the overall unemployment rate in the country has already reached 8 million people.
for his part, founder of the service Superjob Alexei Zakharov believes that real unemployment in Russia is more than double the official statistics, and 5-6 times the number of people registered in employment services. The expert estimates the real unemployment of 10 million people.
“because Of the isolation, not all companies are physically able to execute all the legal procedures for dismissal, bankruptcy, closure of enterprises. Now they come out of isolation — and we immediately see a rise in unemployment. The actual number of unemployed 5-6 times higher. We believe that work already lost about 10 million people. By autumn the figure could rise to 20 million,” said June 3 Zakharov.
at the same time Russia continues to grow the number of official unemployed, and, as of June 3, registered at the employment centres was 2.2 million Russians.
As analysts predict The Boston Consulting Group (BCG), the overall unemployment rate in Russia because of the crisis caused by the pandemic coronavirus, can grow from 4.6% to 8-10% in the short term. However, it is expected that by the end of 2020, the situation will begin to improve. In addition, according to BCG, the reduction of solvent demand of the population in Russia can reach from 2-3 to 9-12% depending on the scale of the crisis.
the results of the survey “Levada-center”, which was held in April, a quarter of Russians (25%) experienced delayed payments of wages and redundancies (26%). Almost a third of respondents (32%), in the family which is involved, replied that they personally or their family members have already touched upon the problem of reducing wages.
let’s Add that the Russian economy in February—March 2020 was under the powerful impact of two negative factors — the rapid spread of the coronavirus pandemic infethe reconstruction COVID-19 and its deleterious effect on the global economy and collapse in oil prices. Against this background, the rouble significantly depreciated against the dollar and the Euro. Reacting to the situation, the government and the Bank of Russia adopted several packages of measures to support the economy and citizens.
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