Mathematician pointed out the illogic of statistics coronavirus in Russia

Director of research Agency Data Insight Boris Ovchinnikov has noticed that the number of people infected with the novel coronavirus in Russia for 25 days four times ending in “99”.

According to estimates by Ovchinnikov, the probability of such coincidence is only 0,011%. From this the mathematician concludes that the Russian official statistics of coronavirus most likely not true. In comments to the TV channel “Rain” Ovchinnikov noted: apparently, the numbers “customize”, not only at the regional level, but also at the Federal level in the summation of regional data. To the question whether he was not afraid Ovchinnikov to be held accountable for its publication, he replied that “some caution and fear are present,” but expressed hope that the representatives of the government: official statistics much not up to an adequate reflection of reality. As an example, a mathematician cited the situation with coronavirus in Dagestan.

on his page On Facebook Ovchinnikov explains: according to the official version, voiced every day by operational staff number of new TB cases in Russia as a whole is the sum of 85 independent from each other values, that is, patients identified in each region. In addition 85 of these variables, most of which is several or even many dozens, the theoretical probability of getting a number with 99 at the end is the same as 00 or 01 or any other pair of numbers. The probability of a random match is calculated using the binomial distribution. It turns out 0,011% or 1 in 9350 attempts.

Recall, as of may 25, in Russia revealed 353 427 cases of coronavirus in 85 regions. For the entire period recorded 3 633 fatalities, recovered 118 798 people.

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