the Chairman of the Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina believes that the total return of the GDP to the levels of 2019 will take place only in the first half of 2022. This forecast it was announced at a press conference.
“the Full return of GDP levels in 2019 are likely to occur only in the first half of 2022”, — quotes the PRIME head of the Central Bank.
At the same time, she says that now the signs of a partial recovery in economic activity. “This is due to the gradual easing of restrictive measures in the majority of regions”, — said Nabiullina.
however, she warned, “it will take time to restore production and supply chain.”
Earlier on Friday, the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia lowered the key rate from 100 basis points to 4.5% per annum — to a new historic low.
As, in particular, pointed out the regulator, “part of the adopted restrictive measures (introduced because of the pandemic coronavirus infection COVID-19 — ed.) continues to act”.
“Along with the substantial fall in external demand that has a more long-term negative impact on economic activity than the Bank of Russia predicted in April. There was a significant decline in business activity in the service sector and industry, the decline in new orders for domestic and foreign markets, the decline of investment. Increased unemployment and decreased income, decreased significantly, the turnover of retail trade. The gradual lifting of restrictive measures in may and June contributes to the gradual recovery of the sector-oriented consumption. However, the polls still reflect the maintenance of cautious business sentiment,” — emphasizes the Bank.
In this regard, he does not exclude that “the reduction in GDP in the second quarter may be more significant than expected”. “At the same time support Russian the economy has put additional measures of the government and the Bank of Russia to mitigate the economic impact of the pandemic coronavirus. In these conditions, GDP will decline by 4-6% in 2020. In 2021 or 2022 will continue the recovery growth of the Russian economy”, — said the controller.
we will Remind, last week the Chairman of the accounts chamber of the Russian Federation Aleksey Kudrin said in an interview with TASS that at present the Russian economy is in the center of the “perfect storm” caused by the pandemic coronavirus infection COVID-19, as well as falling oil prices and devaluation of the ruble in February—March this year. “We are now passing the peak (of the crisis — ed.), situated in the centre of the “perfect storm”, then it will be easier and easier,” — said the head of the controlling Agency.
He believes that economic growth is possible next year, however, in his view, “it will be less” than the 3.5-4% expected “on the most optimistic forecast”. “There are analysts that for some indicators we only 2023 will be able to reach the level of last year. Therefore, economic growth remains a major task and requires a systematic, integrated approach. Before the crisis, these efforts were insufficient, and now they have even bigger increase,” — said Kudrin.
the Official forecast of Ministry of economic development involves the reduction of Russia’s GDP in 2020 and 4.8% (after rising 1.3% by the end of 2019). The Bank of Russia evaluates the downturn of the economy in 2020 in the range of 4-6%.
let’s Add that the Russian economy in February—March 2020 was under the powerful impact of two negative factors — the rapid spread of the pandemic coronavirus infection COVID-19 and its deleterious effect on the global economy and collapse in oil prices. Against this background, the rouble significantly depreciated against the dollar and the Euro. Reacting to the situation, the governmentthe business and the Bank of Russia adopted several packages of measures to support the economy and citizens.
on 2 June Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin briefed President Vladimir Putin a national plan for the recovery of the Russian economy in 2020-2021 years, noting in particular that the cost of the plan will amount to about 5 trillion roubles. On 19 June the head of state was sent the updated draft of the plan.
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