The use of this tool of the Fundamental Law seems inexorable, for lack of an absolute majority for the macronists. Its possible use was already authorized last Wednesday by the Council of Ministers.

“We will no doubt have to resort to 49.3 but, contrary to what Jean-Luc Mélenchon says (on the sidelines of his “march against high cost of living”, editor’s note), it will not be tomorrow “Monday, assured Sunday evening Elisabeth Terminal at TF1.

Speculation is rife on the moment that the Prime Minister will choose: Wednesday, the theoretical day of the end of the discussions in the hemicycle, or even later? Tuesday is less likely, during the day of interprofessional “mobilization and strike” initiated by the CGT.

“I want the debate to take place,” she said. “Let’s go as far as possible,” said Minister of Public Accounts Gabriel Attal earlier, even if over the days “the bill is getting heavier” with votes last week already resulting in 8 billion euros in additional expenses.

“It depends on how it goes” with the opposition: “if it were to turn into something harder, or if we had a really huge loss (during a vote, editor’s note), we should perhaps consider to move things forward”, slips a source within the executive.

The government has already been beaten many times: the key objective of containing the public deficit to 5% of GDP in 2023 has been erased, the “exit tax” concerning the tax exile of entrepreneurs has been restored, and credits for tax voted for all residents in Ehpad or for the energy renovation of housing.

The MoDem group, a member of the majority, even passed an increase in the taxation of “super-dividends” without the approval of the government.

But despite a few flare-ups, there was no obstruction, which did not give the government the opportunity to activate an unblocking via 49.3.

– Managing multiple fronts –

More than 2,000 amendments remain to be examined, out of the more than 3,400 tabled, starting Monday with the proposal of Nupes to restore the ISF. And big topics are yet to come, such as the taxation of “superprofits” perhaps on Monday, the abolition of the CVAE, a tax on businesses, and even the tariff shield on energy.

In the equation of 49.3, also weighs social protest. “It is better to solve the problem of the TotalEnergies refineries” before putting the responsibility of the government at stake and being confronted with the motions of censure announced by the Nupes and the RN, explains a government source.

The motions in question are almost ready, and have little chance of being adopted – RN deputies will not vote “a priori” for the Nupes motion, said their boss Marine Le Pen. And vice versa for the left.

In the meantime, the anger of some is mounting: “they are therefore debating the national representation for nothing and will not retain the amendments voted on. They therefore have only contempt for the French and for democracy”, was indignant Ms. Le Pen on Twitter.

“The sovereign Parliament legislates. We want to know if you are a co-builder”, had launched in the hemicycle the boss of the PS Olivier Faure, taking at his word the invitation to “dialogue” made by the Minister of the Economy Bruno Le Mayor.

The government has the choice of submitting the version it wishes to 49.3, whether or not it retains the amendments voted on or simply tabled. The discussions are already going well to calibrate the text and Elisabeth Borne must exchange Monday with the presidents of the three groups of the majority.

“The search for compromise is done to the end”, we are assured within the executive, in line with the “new method”.

The week will be long, and possibly complicated again. The Assembly should in principle begin the examination of the 2023 draft budget of the Sécu on Thursday, with a 49.3 there also expected, as soon as the examination of the revenue part is finished, or even before.