Economic crisis in Russia triggered by the pandemic coronavirus infection COVID-19, and the collapse of oil prices and devaluation of the ruble in February—March, may lead to fall of GDP at the end of this year from 4-6% to 10-15% depending on the duration of restrictive measures and the situation on the hydrocarbon market. Such forecast contains in research of the Boston Consulting Group.
BCG Experts have identified three basic scenarios. The first — “Bounce” — suggests the economic decline of 4-6%, RIA “Novosti”.
Under the second scenario, called “push-Pull” and, according to analysts, most likely, the Russian economy loses 7-10%: short a lockdown will be ineffective, and the country can expect a resurgence of morbidity prior to the emergence of vaccines before the end of 2020.
Third, most stringent, the option is called the “Critical decline” and suggests a collapse of GDP by 10-15%. In this scenario, viral crisis drags on, and the authorities will be forced to apply more rigorous and prolonged quarantine measures.
However, in any case, experts BCG do not see room for more hard option with the conditional name “the Second 90” because, they believe, there are no prerequisites for structural changes in the economy and the financial sector.
we will Remind, yesterday the head of Ministry of economic development (MED) of the Russian Federation Maxim Reshetnikov presented a briefing on the updated macroeconomic forecast of the Ministry. In particular, at the end of this year Russia’s economy against the background of restrictive measures in connection with the spread of coronavirus infection COVID-19 will lose 5%, but in 2021 the expected recovery growth at 2.8%.
the Decline in industrial production in Russia in 2020 will amount to 5.4%. It is further projected to increase more than 3% annually. The average price of Urals crude oil in 2020 is expected to reach $31,1 per barrel versus $63.8 in 2019, 2021 — of $35.4 per barrel. Real wages by the end of 2020 will decrease by 3.9%, real disposable incomes will shrink by 3.8%.
let’s Add that the Russian economy in February—March 2020 was under the powerful impact of two negative factors — the rapid spread of the pandemic coronavirus infection COVID-19 and its deleterious effect on the global economy and collapse in oil prices. Against this background, the rouble significantly depreciated against the dollar and the Euro. Wave of devaluation held from 7 to 9 March and 18 March.
Reacting to the situation, the government and the Bank of Russia has prepared a plan of priority measures for the sustainable development of the economy. As explained by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, “it’s kind of the anti-crisis plan, a set of operational activities that are necessary for stable socio-economic development”. “We will focus on supporting industries that were in a difficult situation, but primarily on the support of the people and providing them with goods of first necessity”, — stressed the head of the Cabinet of Ministers.
In particular, it has been announced vacation credit for small and medium business and people who find themselves in a difficult situation, promised financial assistance to affected industries, provided soft loans, including the payment of salaries, reduced employers ‘ social security contributions, given the postponement of rent and tax payments, excluding VAT, imposed a moratorium on bankruptcy.
Later, it was adopted a second package of economic support measures (soft loans for working capital for strategic enterprises, non-repayable financial assistance to small and medium businesses, including on the issue of salaries and financial assistance to regions and airlines).
for its part, the Central Bank has approved measures to support citizens, the economy and the financial sector in a pandemic COVID-19, and then supplemented them with new packages.
21 April, the Russian government announced that the value adopted by the Cabinet of Ministers of measures to support the economy already amounted to 2.1 trillion rubles. Prior to that, head of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation Anton Siluanov said that the budget measures for combating coronavirus and its implications in Russia is about 2.8% of GDP. In General, the total volume of fiscal support to individuals and business of all sectors in the context of pandemic coronavirus, the Ministry of Finance was estimated at 6.5% of GDP.
may 11, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the end of may 12, a single period of days off, entered March 30, in the fight against COVID-19. He also announced the beginning of implementation of the third package of anti-crisis measures, under which the state, in particular, will increase targeted support for families with children, small businesses, individual entrepreneurs and self-employed. In addition, Putin instructed the government to prepare a national plan for long-term development of the economy, the recovery in employment and incomes.
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