the Decline in industrial production in Russia will continue and will reach by the end of may of 8% in annual comparison, analysts predict the Higher school of Economics (HSE).
“the Forecast index of industrial production based on interviews with entrepreneurs, produced by Rosstat, says the continuation of significant industrial decline in may—June. So, according to the model, taking into account expectations in may 2020, the industry growth rate will be only about 92% by may of 2019, in June, maybe insignificant “revival” to 94%”, — quotes TASS of the excerpts from the review of HSE.
Earlier, the Deputy head of IAC “Alpari” Natalia Milchakova stated that the regime of self-isolation and non-working April started earlier exacerbated the downward spiral of industrial production.
She noted that the volume of industrial production in Russia in hours April 2020 fell at an annual rate of 6.6%, according to Rosstat estimates that “exceeded the negative predictions of the market consensus (down at an annualized rate of 8-25%)”.
“In this case partly negative analysts’ forecasts were met: non-April compared with a March, industrial production in Russia fell 9.2%. And for the first four months of 2020 the rate of growth of Russian industry in annual terms was only 0.6%,” — stated in the review of the expert.
In her view, “this means that the first quarter of 2020 for the Russian industry was also quite weak, and the regime of self-isolation and non-APR only exacerbated previously started the downward spiral”.
Recall that March 25, in a televised address to the nation Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed “extreme importance” to prevent “the threat of a rapid spread of the disease.” In this regard, he announced the week of 30 March-5 April “off, with pay”. 2 APR during the next televised address, Putin stated that the threat from pandemic coronavirus infection COVID-19 is maintained. The head of state decided “to extend the state of non-working days until the end of the month, ie April 30, inclusive”, but “with the retention by the employees of their wages.” On 28 April, the President extended a state of non-working days before 12 may, combining the traditional may holidays on the working days from 6 to 8 may.
let’s Add that the Russian economy in February—March 2020 was under the powerful impact of two negative factors — the rapid spread of the pandemic coronavirus infection COVID-19 and its deleterious effect on the global economy and collapse in oil prices. Against this background, the rouble significantly depreciated against the dollar and the Euro. Reacting to the situation, the government and the Bank of Russia adopted several packages of measures to support the economy and citizens.
may 11, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the end of may 12, a single period of days off, entered March 30, in the fight against COVID-19. He also announced the beginning of implementation of the third package of anti-crisis measures, under which the state, in particular, will increase targeted support for families with children, small businesses, individual entrepreneurs and self-employed. In addition, Putin instructed the government to prepare a national plan for long-term development of the economy, the recovery in employment and incomes.
on 27 may, the Minister of economic development (MED) of the Russian Federation Maxim Reshetnikov said that the total cost of anti-crisis measures to support the Russian economy, aimed at combating the impact of the pandemic coronavirus has reached 3.3 trillion rubles.
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