Analysts at energy centre SKOLKOVO does not exclude the possibility that the pandemic coronavirus infection COVID-19 and the fall in world demand for hydrocarbons, Russia may face severe economic crisis in more than a decade, according to Bloomberg.
the Agency notes that almost half of Russia’s budget accounts for revenues from energy trade. However, due to pandemics and global warming, demand for fossil energy sources fell sharply, which even led to a short-term setting negative prices for raw materials, said Lenta.ru.
As experts warn, if the Russian economy does not adapt to the new reality, the budget revenues will “fall dramatically”, while GDP growth in the next 20 years will be limited to 0.8%.
we will Remind, last week the Chairman of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina did not rule out that the economic downturn in Russia in April—June will be stronger than previously projected 8%.
Until then, the Agency Bloomberg referring to data of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, predicted the fall of Russia’s economy in April—June by 16%, that would be the worst quarterly figure since the early 1990s years.
on 21 may, the Minister of economic development (MED) of the Russian Federation Maxim Reshetnikov presented a briefing on the updated macroeconomic forecast of the Ministry. In particular, at the end of this year Russia’s economy against the background of restrictive measures in connection with the spread of coronavirus infection COVID-19 will lose 5%, but in 2021 the expected recovery growth at 2.8%.
the Minister predicted the fall in GDP in the second quarter by 9.5% in the third — 6.3%, in the fourth quarter by 5.2%.
the Decline in industrial production in Russia in 2020 will amount to 5.4%. It is further projected to increase more than 3% annually. The average price of Urals crude oil in 2020 is expected to reach $31,1 per barrel versus $63.8 in 2019, 2021 — $35,4 per barrel. Real wages by the end of 2020 will decrease by 3,9%, real disposable incomes will shrink by 3.8%.
According to preliminary estimates from Rosstat, the Russian economy in the first quarter of 2020 grew 1.6% yoy.
Earlier, the Ministry of economic development (MAYOR) of the Russian Federation estimated the GDP growth in the first 3 months of the year at 1.8%, and the Bank of Russia is 1.5-2%.
the Bank of Russia admits that in 2020, GDP will be reduced by 4-6% (after increasing 1.3% in 2019), but in the future, the projected growth during the recovery. In early may the Minister of Finance of the Russian Federation Anton Siluanov in interview to the newspaper “Vedomosti” said that in the base scenario is taken by the Ministry of economic contraction by the end of this year by 5%.
let’s Add that the Russian economy in February—March 2020 was under the powerful impact of two negative factors — the rapid spread of the pandemic coronavirus infection COVID-19 and its deleterious effect on the global economy and collapse in oil prices. Against this background, the rouble significantly depreciated against the dollar and the Euro. Wave of devaluation held from 7 to 9 March and 18 March.
the Russian economy in February—March 2020 was under the powerful impact of two negative factors — the rapid spread of the pandemic coronavirus infection COVID-19 and its deleterious effect on the global economy and collapse in oil prices. Against this background, the rouble significantly depreciated against the dollar and the Euro. Reacting to the situation, the government and the Bank of Russia adopted several packages of measures to support the economy and citizens.
may 11, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the end of may 12, a single period of days off, entered March 30, in the fight against COVID-19. He also announced the beginning of implementation of the third package of anti-crisis measures, under which the state, in particular, will increase targeted support for families with children, small businesses, individual entrepreneurs and self-employed. In addition, Putin instructed PRAthe government to prepare a national plan for long-term development of the economy, the recovery in employment and incomes.
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