Reduction of Russia’s GDP in the II quarter of this years “may be more significant than expected,” warns the Central Bank.
Earlier on Friday, the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia lowered the key rate from 100 basis points to 4.5% per annum — to a new historic low.
While the regulator has indicated that “part of the adopted restrictive measures (introduced because of the pandemic coronavirus infection COVID-19 — ed.) continues to act”.
“Along with the substantial fall in external demand that has a more long-term negative impact on economic activity than the Bank of Russia predicted in April. There was a significant decline in business activity in the service sector and industry, the decline in new orders for domestic and foreign markets, the decline of investment. Increased unemployment and decreased income, decreased significantly, the turnover of retail trade. The gradual lifting of restrictive measures in may and June contributes to the gradual recovery of the sector-oriented consumption. However, the polls still reflect the maintenance of cautious business sentiment,” — emphasizes the Bank.
In this regard, he does not exclude that “the reduction in GDP in the second quarter may be more significant than expected”. “At the same time support the Russian economy have further measures of the government and the Bank of Russia to mitigate the economic impact of the pandemic coronavirus. In these conditions, GDP will decline by 4-6% in 2020. In 2021 or 2022 will continue the recovery growth of the Russian economy”, — said the controller.
we will Remind, last week the Chairman of the accounts chamber of the Russian Federation Aleksey Kudrin said in an interview with TASS that at present the Russian economy is in the center of the “perfect storm” caused by the pandemic coronavirus infection COVID-19, and the fall in oil prices and the devaluation of the ruble in Februarye—March of this year.
“We are now passing the peak (of the crisis — ed.), situated in the centre of the “perfect storm”, then it will be easier and easier,” — said the head of the controlling Agency.
He believes that economic growth is possible next year, however, in his view, “it will be less” than the 3.5-4% expected “on the most optimistic forecast”. “There are analysts that for some indicators we only 2023 will be able to reach the level of last year. Therefore, economic growth remains a major task and requires a systematic, integrated approach. Before the crisis, these efforts were insufficient, and now they have even bigger increase,” — said Kudrin.
for its part, the General Director of rating Agency “Expert RA” Sergey Tishchenko believes that the Russian economy is the favorable development of the situation will come to the pre-crisis growth rate in the middle of next year. This opinion he expressed in an interview with RIA “Novosti”.
“in case of favorable developments, you can count on a level of 2019 to mid-2021, with the base — by the beginning of 2022,” — said Tishchenko.
however, he predicts that by the end of this year, the decline in the Russian economy will fall by 4.2%, with good development of the situation in the second half of the decline in GDP may be less than 3%.
Evaluation of an expert was optimistic expectations of Russian financial authorities. The official forecast of Ministry of economic development involves the reduction of Russia’s GDP in 2020 and 4.8% (after rising 1.3% by the end of 2019). The Bank of Russia evaluates the downturn of the economy in 2020 in the range of 4-6%.
let’s Add that the Russian economy in February—March 2020 was under the powerful impact of two negative factors — the rapid spread of the pandemic coronavirus infection COVID-19 and its pagebtion of the impact on the global economy and collapse in oil prices. Against this background, the rouble significantly depreciated against the dollar and the Euro. Reacting to the situation, the government and the Bank of Russia adopted several packages of measures to support the economy and citizens.
on 2 June Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin briefed President Vladimir Putin a national plan for the recovery of the Russian economy in 2020-2021 years, noting in particular that the cost of the plan will be about 5 trillion rubles.
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