The CBR explained why the June accelerated inflation

the June Acceleration of inflation in Russia “coincide” with the statistical effect is illustrated in the Bulletin of the Department of studies and forecasting of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation “as evidenced by trends”.

As the experts of the regulator, “annual inflation in June accelerated to 3.21% after of 3.02% in may”. “However, this acceleration has everything to do with the statistical effect: the output from the inflation calculation low values in June—December last year. In General, the balance of risks remains tilted to the disinflationary side”, — emphasized in the review.

While the Central Bank indicate that “disinflationary factors associated primarily with falling demand in the economy continue to prevail.” “Despite this, in June annual inflation accelerated somewhat expected on the background of very low growth of prices in June last year. The recovery of economic activity occurs gradually, supporting the disinflationary pressures in the economy. This is also facilitated by the relative stability in the financial markets and the recovery in oil prices”, — stated in the document.

we also Add that, according to Rosstat, in June consumer prices in Russia rose 0.2% the previous month, when they rose 0.3%. While yoy inflation in June accelerated to 3.2% from 3% in may.

Over the past year, consumer prices rose by 3% (December to December 2018). Thus, 3-percent inflation rate in 2019 was the second lowest value of this indicator for all history of modern Russia. The absolute minimum was recorded at the end of 2017 and 2.5% in 2018, prices increased by 4.3%.

the Ministry of economic development, according to the updated macroeconomic forecast expects annual inflation to end this year at 3.5%. For its part, the Bank of Russia assumes that inflation for the year will amount to 3.8-4.8% and will be close to 4% thereafter.

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