The CBR warned about the risk of inflation deviation from target

In Russia on the background of the overwhelming influence of disinflationary factors of risk of deviations in inflation from the target (target) to 4% in 2021. This is stated in a press release following the meeting of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank, which the regulator has lowered the key rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% per annum.

As noted by the Bank of Russia, “the dynamics of inflation this year and in the first half of 2021 will largely formed under the influence occurred in the second quarter deep falling domestic and external demand.”

“In terms of the overwhelming influence of disinflationary factors of risk of deviations of inflation down from 4% in 2021. Implemented from April, a significant easing of monetary policy aimed at limiting this risk and stabilize inflation near 4% at the forecast horizon. The Bank of Russia, taking into account the monetary policy annual inflation at 3.7—4.2% in 2020, 3.5 to 4.0% in 2021 will remain close to 4% in the future,” says the regulator.

we will Remind, it became known yesterday that inflation expectations of the Russians for the current month increased after declining in April—June. This is evidenced by a telephone survey conducted July 6-12, LLC “infom” to order of Bank of Russia.

“Inflation expectations in the monthly Outlook has improved since the beginning of April to end of June: the share expecting a strong growth in price during this period declined by 17 percentage points to 26%. However, in July the share of negative assessments increased to 30%, which primarily related to the aforementioned seasonal increase of prices for communal services”, — emphasized in the review.

While the annual inflation expectations rose from April 7 percentage points in July has already reached 44%.

on 19 June, the Chairman of the Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina predicted that annual inflation in Russia will pass its peak in February 2021. “Inflation will not accelerate, we can increase the rates of annual inflation. This is due primarily to the low base effect of last year. In our view, if we take the figures of annual inflation, they figure will be the maximum at the beginning of 2021,” said Nabiullina at a press conference.

“we Have the lowest inflation was in February last year, so there could be the high inflation, the annual figures can be (the highest — ed.) in February next year due to the base effect of this year”, — said the head of the Central Bank.

we also Add that, according to Rosstat, in June consumer prices in Russia rose 0.2% the previous month, when they rose 0.3%. While yoy inflation in June accelerated to 3.2% from 3% in may.

Over the past year, consumer prices rose by 3% (December to December 2018). Thus, 3-percent inflation rate in 2019 was the second lowest value of this indicator for all history of modern Russia. The absolute minimum was recorded at the end of 2017 and 2.5% in 2018, prices increased by 4.3%.

the Ministry of economic development, according to the updated macroeconomic forecast expects annual inflation to end this year at 3.5%. For its part, the Bank of Russia assumes that inflation for the year to 3.7—4.2% in 2020, from 3.5 to 4% in 2021 will remain close to 4% thereafter.

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