the Central Bank of the Russian Federation does not expect a quick recovery of the Russian economy after the recession because of the restrictions imposed in the fight against the spread of coronavirus infection COVID-19. About it today on a press-conferences were declared by the Chairman of the Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina.
“We do not expect a quick recovery, because the question is not only how quickly demand recovers, both external and internal will be supported, but still a lot of uncertainty from the perspective of proposals”, — quotes the PRIME head of the Central Bank.
however, she noted that the Russian economy is rather specialized: if in a production chain for some of the companies will not be able to restore their activity, may suffer the whole chain and production.
Nabiullina also said that the regulator will specify the forecast decline of Russia’s GDP in the II quarter due to extended coronavirus restrictions. According to her, the rating will be given “closer to the meeting of the Board of Directors”, which is scheduled for June 19.
earlier today, analysts at the Institute “development Center” Higher school of Economics (HSE) predicted that the Russian economy following the results of II quarter of the current year may be reduced by 9.5% yoy, and for the entire 2020 is 5.2%, but with the prospect of growth in 2021, a pace of about 3%. However, trading experts, “too much will depend on the epidemiological situation in Russia and in the world, the scale of state support of the economy, the dynamics of oil prices and behavior of the population and enterprises”.
on the Eve of the chief economist VEB Andrei Klepach said that it expects a decline of Russia’s GDP by the end of this year by 4.5%. “The current crisis shows that we do are very sensitive. The Russian economy this year will fall, according to the official forecast of the Ministry of economy (Ministry of economic development — ed.) by 5%. I think that even less — 4,5%”, — said the expert.
a Day earlier, analysts of the Central Bank warned that the annual growth rate of Russia’s GDP in April—June of the current year will be negative. As explained by the regulator, such dynamics will be formed “because of the significant impact on the economic activity of restrictive measures for curbing the epidemic of coronavirus”.
the Bank of Russia forecasts that at the end of this year the country’s GDP will shrink by 4-6%.
According to estimates by the Ministry of economic development (MED), Russia’s economy last month lost 12% yoy, after rising by 0.8% (according to the adjusted plus 0.9 percent evaluation), and for 4 months of the year — GDP decline is estimated at minus 1.9% in annual terms.
According to preliminary data from Rosstat, the country’s economy in the first quarter of 2020 grew 1.6% yoy.
According to the official baseline forecast, the MAYOR, the country’s GDP by the end of this year will be reduced by 5%, but in 2021 is expected to grow at 2.8%.
let’s Add that the Russian economy in February—March 2020 was under the powerful impact of two negative factors — the rapid spread of the pandemic coronavirus infection COVID-19 and its deleterious effect on the global economy and collapse in oil prices. Against this background, the rouble significantly depreciated against the dollar and the Euro. Reacting to the situation, the government and the Bank of Russia adopted several packages of measures to support the economy and citizens.
on 2 June Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin introduced Presidentof Vladimir Putin a national plan for the recovery of the Russian economy in 2020-2021 years, noting in particular that the cost of the plan will be about 5 trillion rubles.
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