The Central Bank explained why the dynamics of Russia's GDP will be negative

the Annual growth rates of Russia’s GDP in April—June of the current year will be negative, the forecasts of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation in the information-analytical comments.

As explained by the regulator, such dynamics will be formed “because of the significant impact on the economic activity of restrictive measures for curbing the epidemic of coronavirus”. However, warns the Central Bank, “in the second half of the annual rate of economic growth will remain negative”.

“these estimates largely depend on the timing and speed of the easing of restrictive measures”, — emphasized in the comments.

However, experts of the Central Bank, “the gradual easing of restrictions in foreign countries and in Russia will create the conditions for a recovery in economic activity in the third quarter.”

the Bank of Russia forecasts that at the end of this year the country’s GDP will shrink by 4-6%.

Recall that, according to the Ministry of economic development (MED), Russia’s economy last month lost 12% yoy, after rising by 0.8% (according to the adjusted plus 0.9 percent evaluation), and for 4 months of the year — GDP decline is estimated at minus 1.9% in annual terms.

According to preliminary data from Rosstat, the country’s economy in the first quarter of 2020 grew 1.6% yoy.

According to the official baseline forecast, the MAYOR, the country’s GDP by the end of this year will be reduced by 5%, but in 2021 is expected to grow at 2.8%.

on may 26, the international rating Agency Fitch has revised the Outlook on the fall of the Russian economy and now expects the country’s GDP will shrink by 5% by the end of this year. Last month, Fitch experts suggested that the Russian economy will lose this year only 3.3%. The Agency has adjusted expectations for the growth of Russian GDP in 2021 to 3% from 2.5%.

Thus, the Fitch rating regarding the fall of the Russian economy in the current year are consistent with The Ministry of economic development.

Meanwhile, their evaluation submitted to Bank of America (BofA): the Bank’s experts lowered expectations for growth in GDP in 2021, from 6.3% to 4.8%, but has maintained the forecast of falling of economy in the current year to 5.6%.

the Russian economy in February—March 2020 was under the powerful impact of two negative factors — the rapid spread of the pandemic coronavirus infection COVID-19 and its deleterious effect on the global economy and collapse in oil prices. Against this background, the rouble significantly depreciated against the dollar and the Euro. Reacting to the situation, the government and the Bank of Russia adopted several packages of measures to support the economy and citizens.

may 11, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the end of may 12, a single period of days off, entered March 30, in the fight against COVID-19. He also announced the beginning of implementation of the third package of anti-crisis measures, under which the state, in particular, will increase targeted support for families with children, small businesses, individual entrepreneurs and self-employed. In addition, Putin instructed the government to prepare a national plan for long-term development of the economy, the recovery in employment and incomes.

on 27 may, the Minister of economic development (MED) of the Russian Federation Maxim Reshetnikov said that the total cost of anti-crisis measures to support the Russian economy, aimed at combating the impact of the pandemic coronavirus has reached 3.3 trillion rubles.

on 2 June Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin presented to the President a national plan for the recovery of the Russian economy in 2020-2021 years, noting in particular that the cost of the plan will be about 5 trillion rubles.

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