the Economy of Russia following the results of II quarter of current year has decreased by 9.5-10% yoy. This assessment is given in the Bulletin of the Department of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation “as evidenced by trends”.
“taking into account some improvement in the economic situation in June compared to may, a decline in basic industries in April — June is estimated in the range of 8.5-9% year-on-year. According to our estimates, this corresponds to a decline in GDP in the second quarter by 9.5-10% year-on-year,” — experts of the Central Bank.
Analysts believe that “in may, the Russian economy has passed the lowest point of the recession associated with the negative impact of the pandemic”. “Against the backdrop of the lifting of the restrictions, recovery in a number of industries began in may, but the decline in the oil sector outweighed the effect of this growth on the economy as a whole. Judging by leading indicators, in June and early July, the pace of recovery economic growth has accelerated, especially in the service sector and retail trade”, — stated in the Central Bank.
Recall that the official forecast of Ministry of economic development involves the reduction of Russia’s GDP in 2020 is 4.8% (according to the updated macroeconomic forecast, after rising 1.3% by the end of 2019). The Bank of Russia evaluates the downturn of the economy in 2020 in the range of 4-6%.
on 29 June, the international rating Agency Fitch has revised the Outlook for Russia’s GDP decline at the end of this year to 5.8% from previous estimate of 5%. “We… have downgraded the Outlook on Russia by 0.8 percentage points, as the situation of coronavirus has deteriorated, incoming data showed weakening and oil production decreased”, — stated in the review, Fitch. At the same time, analysts expect the growth of Russia’s GDP in 2021 3.6%, and in 2022 by 2%.
Earlier in June, the international monetary Fund (IMF) downgraded its assessment of the fall of the Russian economy in the current year — to 6.6% instead of 5.5%, coolantudavshihsya in April. As indicated by analysts of the Fund, the pandemic coronavirus infection COVID-19 had a negative impact on global economic activity in the first half of 2020 than expected and the recovery more gradual than previously forecast.
Before that, speaking in the state Duma, the Chairman of the Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina did not rule out that the economic losses of Russia due to pandemic coronavirus can be up to 6% of GDP. “GDP will inevitably fall, as in other countries”, — said the head of the Central Bank. However, she believes that Russia will incur smaller economic losses compared to other countries. “And our losses would also be smaller than in the last crisis of 2007-2009,” — said Nabiullina.
Earlier in an interview with TASS the Chairman of the accounts chamber of the Russian Federation Alexey Kudrin said that currently the Russian economy is in the center of the “perfect storm” caused by the pandemic coronavirus infection COVID-19, as well as falling oil prices and devaluation of the ruble in February—March this year. “We are now passing the peak (of the crisis — ed.), situated in the centre of the “perfect storm”, then it will be easier and easier,” — said the head of the controlling Agency.
He believes that economic growth is possible next year, however, in his view, “it will be less” than the 3.5-4% expected “on the most optimistic forecast”. “There are analysts that for some indicators we only 2023 will be able to reach the level of last year. Therefore, economic growth remains a major task and requires a systematic, integrated approach. Before the crisis, these efforts were insufficient, and now they have even bigger increase,” — said Kudrin.
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