The forecast for net capital outflow from Russia has sharply worsened

the Central Bank has adjusted to the downside forecast, the net outflow of capital from the country for 2020 — with the previously expected $15 billion to $25 billion, should be released today medium-term forecast of the Bank of Russia.

in addition, the revised forecast for a net outflow from Russia in the next two years to $25 billion and $15 billion, respectively, from the previously expected $10 billion.

Recall that on 7 February the Bank of Russia has revised its estimates for net capital outflow from the country this year — from $20 billion to $15 billion. in addition, was lowered estimate of the net outflow of capital from Russia in 2021 and 2022, from $15 billion to $10 billion.

However, in January—June 2020, according to the CBR, net capital outflow from the country amounted to $28.9 billion Thus, the net export of capital increased during the first 6 months of the current year by 24% compared with $23.3 billion a year earlier.

Over the past year, the net capital outflow from Russia amounted to, according to the updated valuation, $19 billion.

the Bank of Russia also adjusted the medium-term forecast of development of Russian economy, taking into account pandemic crisis, significantly impeding the assessment of the fall of household expenditure on final consumption to 6.2 and 7.2% by the end of 2020 (against a contraction of 1.6 to 3.6% according to the April forecast).

however, the Central Bank narrowed the range of the forecast of dynamics of GDP reduction to minus 4.5 to 5.5% in 2020 (in April, the Central Bank predicted a fall in GDP of 4-6%).

let’s Add that the Russian economy in February—March 2020 was under the powerful impact of two negative factors — the rapid spread of the pandemic coronavirus infection COVID-19 and its deleterious effect on the global economy and collapse in oil prices. Against this background, the rouble significantly depreciated against the dollar and the Euro. Reacting to the situation, the government and the Bank of Russia adopted several packages of measures to support the economy and citizens.

on may 11, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the end of may 12, a single period of days off, entered March 30, in the fight against COVID-19.

on 2 June Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin reported on the nationwide state plan for the recovery of the Russian economy in 2020-2021 years, noting in particular that the cost of the plan will amount to about 5 trillion roubles. June 19, Putin was sent a revised draft of the national plan.

July 2, Deputy Minister of Finance of the Russian Federation Vladimir Kolychev said that the total cost of the measures (the bailout package), aimed at combating the spread of coronavirus infection in Russia and mitigating economic impacts from restrictions imposed, estimated to be worth about 4 trillion rubles. According to him, the main focus of the budget measures were made on several fronts: strengthening health systems, supporting citizens and businesses, the balancing of regional budgets.

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