The forecast for the fall of the Russian economy deteriorated

the International rating Agency Fitch has revised the Outlook for Russia’s GDP decline at the end of this year to 5.8% from previous estimate of 5%.

“We… have downgraded the Outlook on Russia by 0.8 percentage points, as the situation of coronavirus has deteriorated, incoming data showed weakening and oil production decreased”, — quotes PRIME excerpts from the June review, Fitch.

At the same time, analysts expect the growth of Russia’s GDP in 2021 3.6%, and in 2022 by 2%.

Recall that in late may, Fitch revised the Outlook on the fall of the Russian economy and then suggested that Russia’s GDP will shrink by 5% by the end of this year. A month earlier, the Agency’s experts believed that the Russian economy will lose this year only 3.3%.

But then in may, Fitch has assumed that in 2021, Russia’s GDP will grow by only 3%.

Note also that last week the international monetary Fund (IMF) downgraded its assessment of the fall of the Russian economy in the current year — to 6.6% instead of 5.5%, expected in April. As indicated by analysts of the Fund, the pandemic coronavirus infection COVID-19 had a negative impact on global economic activity in the first half of 2020 than expected and the recovery more gradual than previously forecast.

the Updated IMF forecast was more pessimistic official Russian estimates: RF Central Bank expects the fall of GDP in 2020 in the range of 4-6%, the Ministry of economic development — 4.8%.

a Day earlier, speaking in the state Duma, the Chairman of the Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina did not rule out that the economic losses of Russia due to pandemic coronavirus can be up to 6% of GDP. “GDP will inevitably fall, as in other countries”, — said the head of the Central Bank. However, she believes that Russia will incur smaller economic losses compared to other countries. “And our losses would also be smaller than in the last crisis 2007-2009 years,” said Elvira.

prior To that, she said that the full return of GDP to the levels of 2019 will take place only in the first half of 2022. “The full return of GDP levels in 2019 are likely to occur only in the first half of 2022”, — said the head of the Central Bank.

At the same time she assured that now is showing signs of partial recovery in economic activity. “This is due to the gradual easing of restrictive measures in the majority of regions”, — said Nabiullina. At the same time, she warned, “it will take time to restore production and supply chain.”

Earlier in an interview with TASS the Chairman of the accounts chamber of the Russian Federation Alexey Kudrin said that currently the Russian economy is in the center of the “perfect storm” caused by the pandemic coronavirus infection COVID-19, as well as falling oil prices and devaluation of the ruble in February—March this year. “We are now passing the peak (of the crisis — ed.), situated in the centre of the “perfect storm”, then it will be easier and easier,” — said the head of the controlling Agency.

He believes that economic growth is possible next year, however, in his view, “it will be less” than the 3.5-4% expected “on the most optimistic forecast”. “There are analysts that for some indicators we only 2023 will be able to reach the level of last year. Therefore, economic growth remains a major task and requires a systematic, integrated approach. Before the crisis, these efforts were insufficient, and now they have even bigger increase,” — said Kudrin.

the Official forecast of Ministry of economic development involves the reduction of Russia’s GDP in 2020 is 4.8%, according to the updated macroeconomic forecast (after rising 1.3% by the end of 2019). The Bank of Russia evaluates the downturn of the economy in 2020the ode in the range of 4-6%.

let’s Add that the Russian economy in February—March 2020 was under the powerful impact of two negative factors — the rapid spread of the pandemic coronavirus infection COVID-19 and its deleterious effect on the global economy and collapse in oil prices. Against this background, the rouble significantly depreciated against the dollar and the Euro. Reacting to the situation, the government and the Bank of Russia adopted several packages of measures to support the economy and citizens.

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