The inflation expectations of the Russians went up

Inflation expectations of the Russians for the current month increased after declining in April—June, according to the telephone survey, conducted July 6-12, LLC “infom” to order of Bank of Russia.

“Inflation expectations in the monthly Outlook has improved since the beginning of April to end of June: the share expecting a strong growth in price during this period declined by 17 percentage points to 26%. However, in July the share of negative assessments increased to 30%, which primarily related to the aforementioned seasonal increase of prices for communal services”, — TASS quoted material.

While the annual inflation expectations rose from April 7 percentage points in July has already reached 44%.

Recall that on 19 June the Chairman of the Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina did not rule out that annual inflation in Russia will pass its peak in February 2021. “Inflation will not accelerate, we can increase the rates of annual inflation. This is due primarily to the low base effect of last year. In our view, if we take the figures of annual inflation, they figure will be the maximum at the beginning of 2021,” said Nabiullina at a press conference.

“we Have the lowest inflation was in February last year, so there could be the high inflation, the annual figures can be (the highest — ed.) in February next year due to the base effect of this year”, — said the head of the Central Bank.

Previously, the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia lowered the key rate from 100 basis points to 4.5% per annum — to a new historic low.

in this press release, the regulator admitted that inflation in Russia in the conditions of predominant influence of disinflationary factors can deviate down from 4% in 2021.

As noted, the Central Bank, “the dynamics of inflation this year and in the first half of 2021 will largely formed under the influence ofIEM occurred in the second quarter of deep fall of domestic and external demand”. “The disinflationary impact of weak demand has increased, which is associated with the current and pending economic effects of restrictions. Inflation expectations of population and business has declined after a brief increase in March—April,” says the regulator.

And the Bank of Russia argued that “the impact on prices occurred in March of weakening of the ruble and a temporary increased demand for individual product groups have been exhausted.” According to preliminary data on June 15, the annual inflation rate was about 3.1%.

“In the coming months the dynamics of consumer prices will further curb the strengthening of the ruble observed in may — early June, on the stabilization of the global financial markets and rising oil prices. Current monthly inflation in annual terms will continue to decline. At the same time, the annual inflation rate will increase in 2020 due to low base effect in 2019”, — stressed the Central Bank.

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