Ministry of economic development (MED) of the Russian Federation adjusted in the direction of improving the assessment of the fall of Russia’s GDP in 2020 from 5% to 4.8%.
moreover, the economic recovery, according to the updated parameters of the macroeconomic forecast, will be faster: the growth rate of GDP in 2021 is expected at the level of 3.2% instead of 2.8% in the previous estimate, according to RBC.
the Data for indicators included in the basic version of the basic parameters of the updated forecast of socio-economic development of Russia to 2023, published Telegram-channel “may decree”, their authenticity confirmed by the source Agency in the financial-economic bloc of the government.
However, the head of fiscal policy Economic expert group Alexander Suslin considers that the growth forecast of the economy in 2021, 3.2% seems overly optimistic. According to her, remains unclear, due to which such recovery can be assured.
the Expert believes that in the baseline macroeconomic forecast, obviously, laid the second wave of a pandemic crisis, risks which remain, and do not fully reflect the scale of the bankruptcies and the departure into the shadow economy.
we will Remind, on the eve of the Deputy Chairman of the security Council, the former Prime Minister of Russia Dmitry Medvedev in an article for the journal “Russia in global politics” stated that amid the global crisis caused by the pandemic coronavirus infection COVID-19, the Russian economy is feeling the effects of three shocks.
“naturally, Russia will not be able to avoid universal economic recession. According to the forecast of Ministry of economic development of the country’s GDP in 2020 will fall by 5%, the expected decline in real income of 3.8% and a rise in unemployment to 5.7% — the highest in 9 years. Today our country is feeling the effects of three economic shocks,” — said Medvedev.
the First shock, he said, was the fall in oil prices. “This is the main shock, as the domestic economy savedet dependence on hydrocarbon exports,” stated the former Premier.
the Second shock he believes regulatory decisions of the state associated with the attempt to slow the spread of coronavirus infection.
the Third shock for the Russian economy, Medvedev said the decline in foreign demand for domestic goods, comparable to what happened during the global financial crisis in 2008-2009.
last week, the Chairman of the accounts chamber of the Russian Federation Alexey Kudrin said in an interview with TASS that at present the Russian economy is in the center of the “perfect storm” caused by the pandemic coronavirus infection COVID-19, as well as falling oil prices and devaluation of the ruble in February—March this year.
“We are now passing the peak (of the crisis — ed.), situated in the centre of the “perfect storm”, then it will be easier and easier,” — said the head of the controlling Agency.
He believes that economic growth is possible next year, however, in his view, “it will be less” than the 3.5-4% expected “on the most optimistic forecast”. “There are analysts that for some indicators we only 2023 will be able to reach the level of last year. Therefore, economic growth remains a major task and requires a systematic, integrated approach. Before the crisis, these efforts were insufficient, and now they have even bigger increase,” — said Kudrin.
for its part, the General Director of rating Agency “Expert RA” Sergey Tishchenko believes that the Russian economy is the favorable development of the situation will come to the pre-crisis growth rate in the middle of next year. This opinion he expressed in an interview with RIA “Novosti”.
“in case of favorable developments, you can count on a level of 2019 to mid-2021, with the base — by early 2022”, — said Tishchenko.
however, he predicts that by the end of this year, the decline in the Russian economy will fall by 4.2%, with good development of the situation in the second half of the decline in GDP may be less than 3%.
Evaluation of an expert was optimistic expectations of Russian financial authorities. The official forecast of Ministry of economic development involves the reduction of Russia’s GDP in 2020 and 4.8% (after rising 1.3% by the end of 2019). The Bank of Russia evaluates the downturn of the economy in 2020 in the range of 4-6%.
let’s Add that the Russian economy in February—March 2020 was under the powerful impact of two negative factors — the rapid spread of the pandemic coronavirus infection COVID-19 and its deleterious effect on the global economy and collapse in oil prices. Against this background, the rouble significantly depreciated against the dollar and the Euro. Reacting to the situation, the government and the Bank of Russia adopted several packages of measures to support the economy and citizens.
on 2 June Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin presented to the President a national plan for the recovery of the Russian economy in 2020-2021 years, noting in particular that the cost of the plan will be about 5 trillion rubles.
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