Pro-Draghi fear that the fall of the government led by the former head of the European Central Bank will increase social unrest in a period of runaway inflation, delay the adoption of the budget, threaten the post- Covid funded by Europe and put financial markets in turmoil.
According to the polls, the majority of Italians want “Super Mario” to remain at the helm, but he has only said he is ready to return if the member parties of his broad coalition, which goes from the left to the extreme right, agree to play as a team.
Mario Draghi must intervene before the Senate on Wednesday morning and set out his conditions for remaining at the head of the third economy in the euro zone until the next elections scheduled for May 2023. He will appear the following day before the Chamber of Deputies.
The 74-year-old banker could very well announce that the conditions are no longer met for him to continue his task, which could lead the President of the Republic to dissolve parliament and call elections in September or October.
Some experts predict, however, that he will seek broad support to tackle the country’s most pressing problems, from the rising cost of living to the implementation of urgent reforms and the impact of the war in Ukraine on the economy.
His speech will be followed by a debate during which each party will take a position.
A vote of confidence must be organized in both chambers, allowing to finally see clearly after the crisis caused by the defection on Thursday of the 5 Star Movement (M5S) during a key vote in the Senate.
– “Great uncertainty” –
Left-wing parties have pledged to vote for him, but doubts remain over the attitude of Forza Italia, the right-wing party led by ex-Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, and the far-right League populist tribune Matteo Salvini, who refuse to stay in a government alongside the 5 Stars.
The newspapers all devoted their front pages on Wednesday to the event: “Draghi, confidence or resignation”, headlined the Turin daily La Stampa, while the Milanese daily Il Corriere della Sera announced: “Draghi in the hemicycle, tension and hopes “.
“We are at the heart of an Italian-style political crisis, so the predictions change completely from one second to the next”, analyzes for AFP Giovanni Orsina, director of the School of Public Affairs at the university. Louis from Rome.
M5S chief Giuseppe Conte, also Mr Draghi’s predecessor, demanded that his priorities be taken into account, from the establishment of a minimum wage to tax incentives for energy renovations of homes.
The M5S, already deeply divided by a split, could see a new batch of parliamentarians leave its ranks and vote for confidence.
Whatever the outcome of the vote, the rating agency Fitch believes that this political crisis “is a symptom of greater political uncertainty even if an early election is avoided”, making structural and fiscal reforms even more difficult.
Two-thirds of Italians want Mario Draghi to stay in office despite the current turmoil, according to a Euromedia poll published Tuesday by the daily La Stampa.
Many fear his departure will undermine the country’s efforts to break its dependence on Russian gas and avoid rationing next winter. On Monday, Mr. Draghi concluded a maxi-contract in Algiers to increase gas deliveries.
Brussels and its European partners are also urging Mr. Draghi, a guarantee of stability, to stay. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez even gave a column in Politico entitled “Europe needs leaders like Mario Draghi”.
The markets are also carefully scrutinizing the situation: the possible departure of the chief executive has revived fears of a surge in the country’s borrowing rates, which could prove explosive for the euro zone. Italy’s debt had already found itself in the market’s sights in June when the ECB announced its next tightening.