the Amount of credit purchase of cars (new and used) in Russia decreased in January—June of the current year by 17.8% yoy to 364 thousand units, follows from the joint review of the National Bureau of credit histories (NBCH) and the Agency “AUTOSTAT”.
Thus, experts state that the number sold on credit of cars in the first half of 2020 “was the lowest for similar periods of previous years, starting in 2017”.
However, the study indicated that in June the amount purchased on credit sales amounted to 80,6 thousand units, which is 4.8% more compared to the same period last year (76.9 thousand units).
Commenting on the findings, General Director nbki Alexander Vikulin noted that “the fall of the auto lending in the first half certainly was in the period of quarantine measures in April—may 2020”. “In these months the traditional offline lending in this segment has not actually worked, and the remote channels in the loans relatively underdeveloped…. Most likely, in subsequent months the volume of car credits will be significantly lower than last year”, — the expert believes.
for his part, Executive Director of the analytical Agency “AUTOSTAT”, Sergei Udalov stressed that “in April—may, the restrictive measures associated with pandemic coronavirus, negatively affected the work of auto dealers and car loans”. In June, he said, “the main reasons for the growth were the implementation of pent-up demand, as well as the extension of the terms of the state programs “First / Family car””. “However, some of these factors, in our opinion, to stabilize the situation on the market is not enough,” concludes the expert.
Recall also that sales of new cars and light commercial (LCV) carshe fell to Russia in June 2020 14.6% yoy (after the collapse of 51.8% in may and 72,4% in April) to 122,622 thousand units. For the first 6 months of this year in Russia were sold 635,959 thousand cars and LCV (minus 23.3% in annual terms), it follows from the estimates of the Committee automakers Association of European businesses.
Commenting on the results, Chairman of automobile manufacturers Committee AEB Thomas Starzel noted that “”after two months of sharp fall in car sales in June showed signs of a slow return to the results of last year”. “Despite the fact that the dealers work, measures of state support to encourage sales, and positively affected by pent-up demand in June, we are seeing a decline in sales of 14.6% compared to June 2019. For manufacturers and dealers the past six months have resembled a roller-coaster: a small rise in the beginning of the year, an unprecedented sharp drop in April—may and a slow recovery in June. Drop by 23% compared to June of last year generally corresponds to the new forecast of the AEB in the year 2020: 1 339 000 vehicles sold, also below last year’s level of 23.9%. The new forecast is based on the assumption of continued state support to stimulate customer demand and the absence of the second wave of the pandemic”, — the expert believes.
In late February, the international rating Agency Investors Service Moody’s did not rule out a decline in sales of cars in Russia in the current year by 4%, “amid continued slow economic growth and lack of government stimulus”.
And at the end of April experts of the consulting company PwC did not rule out that the sales of new passenger cars in Russia by the end of this year may have fallen by 30% over the previous year to 1,142 million cars. In this scenario without taking into account stress factors for 2020 implies a decline of only 3.7% to 1.57 million vehicles.
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