Guidance on target figures during the popular vote for amendments to the Constitution were the results of the presidential elections in 2018. These pointers were lowered to the governors of regions and the presidential administration, told the correspondent of “Rosbalt” Professor of the Moscow Higher school of social and economic Sciences Boris Kagarlitsky.
“Everything in the Soviet Union — there is a plan, it should be performed more precisely, to exceed by 0.5-1.5%. This rule knows of any official. And almost all governors have successfully reported on the turnout and results of voting in front of the center, although there are a few “bad guys”,” — said the analyst.
Among them Boris Kagarlitsky called the administration of Nenets Autonomous district, which is planning to disband. According to the analyst, the local authorities simply do not have the incentive to “strain” and work on reporting.
“the Logic here is this: why fuss before retiring? And those of 55.25% against can be freely extrapolated to other Northern regions of the country. Slightly different story with the Irkutsk oblast, which is traditionally considered a democratic region. Here for all PECs worked well observers from the team of the former Governor Sergei Levchenko, in fact, they have prevented all violations of 1 July. According to them, the only vote they have prevented about a third of the violations. It is interesting that in the Irkutsk region, the gap between exit polls and official results is much smaller than, for example, in Moscow and St. Petersburg”, — noted the analyst.
Boris Kagarlitsky has also focused on the fact that a large gap between the votes “for” and “against” are only on those PECs in Russia, where independent observation was not organized.
“As a rule, in those PECs where the observers were, the ratio of supporters and opponents was 55 by 45%. And where there is no controlshaft, the number of votes “for” increased to 70-80%. As for the additions on turnout — this has occurred largely during the home-based voting”, — said the analyst.
According to Kagarlitsky, the real turnout could be around 30-35% and in some regions — 40-45%. And given that opponents of the amendment still would have stayed at home, supporters would have won, but with a much smaller margin of about 2-4%.
the Analyst also notes that to the exit poll conducted in Moscow and St. Petersburg, is to believe, as even in published they give a picture, slightly shifted to the side of the authorities: the fact that about 25% refuse to answer the question about his will — and, as practice shows, about two thirds of the “refuseniks” vote against.
Recall that the results of independent exit polls in Moscow and St. Petersburg showed that 55% of Muscovites and 63% of Petersburgers have voted against the amendments. Officially, the CEC said that after processing 100% of protocols of voting “for” in favor 77,92% of Russians voted against of 21.27%. In St. Petersburg, according to the CEC, the amendment was supported by 77.6 per cent of citizens in the capital — 65,29% “for” and 33,98% against.
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