Real unemployment in Russia is more than double the official statistics, and 5-6 times the number of people registered in employment services. This opinion was expressed by the founder of service of the Superjob Alexei Zakharov, who estimates the real unemployment of 10 million people.
“because Of the isolation, not all companies are physically able to execute all the legal procedures for dismissal, bankruptcy, closure of enterprises. Now they come out of isolation — and we immediately see a rise in unemployment. The actual number of unemployed 5-6 times higher. We believe that work already lost about 10 million people. By autumn the figure could rise to 20 million”, — quotes “Interfax” expert.
Earlier today it became known that more than a third of Russian companies in the next six months intend to reduce in average of 16% of its employees. Nearly half of the companies have already optimized, refusing approximately 20% of the staff, reports the newspaper “Izvestia” with reference to the results of the study hh.ru.
On the question of whether the change in the number of employees in the next six months, 36% of companies reported plans to reduce staff (14% said he “just reduced”, and 22% — “rather decrease”). Respondents estimated optimization average of 16%.
At the same time, 18% of firms expect to maintain staff numbers, a 35% increase, the rest are still undecided.
moreover, experts point out that good workers to reduce unprofitable — their salaries will cost less than hiring and training new after the crisis.
Recall that the number of official unemployed in Russia has not ceased to grow, and registered at the employment centres has grown to 2.1 million Russians. Such data yesterday at the “government hour” in the Federation Council led by the head of the Ministry of labor of the Russian Federation Anton Kotkov. A day earlier, the Minister voiced the statistics for which OFIsocial of the unemployed were of 2.09 million people, and last Wednesday, their number exceeded 1.9 million.
this was the published data of Rosstat, according to which the number of unemployed in Russia is calculated according to ILO methodology, increased in April to 4.3 million vs. 3.4 million in March. The increase in the number of unemployed in April 2020 in annual terms (i.e. by April 2019) amounted to 21%, as compared to March 2020 and 23.4%. This implies that the unemployment rate in April was 5.8% of the labour force. This is the highest figure since April of 2016.
However, the Confederation of labour of Russia is assured that the overall unemployment rate in the country has already reached 8 million people.
Meanwhile, the overall unemployment rate in Russia because of the crisis caused by the pandemic coronavirus, can grow from 4.6% to 8-10% in the short term, analysts say The Boston Consulting Group (BCG). However, it is expected that by the end of 2020, the situation will begin to improve. In addition, according to BCG, the reduction of solvent demand of the population in Russia can reach from 2-3 to 9-12% depending on the scale of the crisis.
According to the survey “Levada-center”, which was held in April, a quarter of Russians (25%) experienced delayed payments of wages and redundancies (26%). Almost a third of respondents (32%), in the family which is involved, replied that they personally or their family members have already touched upon the problem of reducing wages.
let’s Add that the Russian economy in February—March 2020 was under the powerful impact of two negative factors — the rapid spread of the pandemic coronavirus infection COVID-19 and its deleterious effect on the global economy and collapse in oil prices. Against this background, the rouble significantly depreciated against the dollar and the Euro. Reacting to the situation, the government and the Bank of Russia adopted several packages of measures to support the economy and citizens.
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