Russia’s Economy last month lost 12% yoy, after rising by 0.8% (according to the adjusted plus 0.9 percent evaluation) indicated in the survey economic development (MED) of the Russian Federation.
“GDP in April 2020, according to the Ministry of economic development, decreased by 12% year-on-year. Introduction from March 30 mode of working days on the territory of Russia in order to combat the spread of novel coronavirus infection, as well as the persistence of negative external economic environment and quarantine measures in the countries-trading partners has led to a decline in economic activity in basic sectors and in the services sector. The decline in GDP over 4 months is estimated at minus 1.9% year-on-year,” reads the document.
At the same time, the MAYOR stated that the largest decline in April was observed in the sectors oriented to consumer demand.
According to the official baseline forecast of the Ministry, the country’s GDP by the end of this year will be reduced by 5%, but in 2021 is expected to grow at 2.8%.
we will Remind, on the eve of the Russian Central Bank published a financial stability review, which stated that the Russian economy as a result of the pandemic coronavirus infection COVID-19 and falling oil prices, “faced with an unprecedented shock.” At the same time, the document says, the regulator is “the ability to conduct countercyclical monetary and macroprudential policy to achieve financial stability and support aggregate demand”. Overall, the survey says, “the global spread of coronavirus infection COVID-19 led to global recession and destabilized the world financial and commodity markets.”
According to the April baseline forecast of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the reduction of output in the Russian economy by the end of the current year will amount to 4-6%.
on may 26, the international rating Agency Fitch has revised the Outlook on the fall of the Russian economy and now expects the country’s GDP juiceRalitsa 5% by the end of this year. Last month, Fitch experts suggested that the Russian economy will lose this year only 3.3%. The Agency has adjusted expectations for the growth of Russian GDP in 2021 to 3% from 2.5%.
Thus, the Fitch rating regarding the fall of the Russian economy this year coincides with the forecasts of the RF Ministry of economic development.
Meanwhile, their evaluation submitted to Bank of America (BofA): the Bank’s experts lowered expectations for growth in GDP in 2021, from 6.3% to 4.8%, but has maintained the forecast of falling of economy in the current year to 5.6%.
Earlier, Central Bank Chairman Elvira Nabiullina has not excluded that the economic downturn in Russia in April—June will be stronger than previously projected 8%.
Until then, the Agency Bloomberg referring to data of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, predicted the fall of Russia’s economy in April—June by 16%, that would be the worst quarterly figure since the early 1990s years.
let’s Add that the Russian economy in February—March 2020 was under the powerful impact of two negative factors — the rapid spread of the pandemic coronavirus infection COVID-19 and its deleterious effect on the global economy and collapse in oil prices. Against this background, the rouble significantly depreciated against the dollar and the Euro. Reacting to the situation, the government and the Bank of Russia adopted several packages of measures to support the economy and citizens.
may 11, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the end of may 12, a single period of days off, entered March 30, in the fight against COVID-19. He also announced the beginning of implementation of the third package of anti-crisis measures, under which the state, in particular, will increase targeted support for families with children, small businesses, individual entrepreneurs and self-employed. In addition, Putin instructed the government to prepare a national plan for long-term development of the economy, the recovery in employment and incomes.
27 may the Minister of economic development (MED) of the Russian Federation Maxim Reshetnikov said that the total cost of anti-crisis measures to support the Russian economy, aimed at combating the impact of the pandemic coronavirus has reached 3.3 trillion rubles.
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