the Russian Economy in the current year, expects a decline of 6% due to pandemic coronavirus infection COVID-19 and the fall in oil prices in February and March. This forecast is contained in the June report of the world Bank (WB).
Thus, the world Bank has sharply lowered its January forecast for GDP growth Russia in 2020 (plus 1.6%), reports TASS.
However, next year the Bank expects to lift Russia’s GDP by 2.7%, which will be stronger than the January forecast (plus 1.8%).
we will Remind, last week the analysts of the Institute “development Center” Higher school of Economics (HSE) suggested that the Russian economy following the results of II quarter of the current year may be reduced by 9.5% yoy, and for the entire 2020 — 5.2% with the prospect of growth in 2021, a pace of about 3%.
Previously the chief economist VEB Andrei Klepach said that it expects a decline of Russia’s GDP by the end of this year by 4.5%. “The current crisis shows that we do are very sensitive. The Russian economy this year will fall, according to the official forecast of the Ministry of economy (Ministry of economic development — ed.) by 5%. I think that even less — 4.5 percent,” — said the expert.
prior To that, analysts of the Central Bank warned that the annual growth rate of Russia’s GDP in April—June of the current year will be negative. As explained by the regulator, such dynamics will be formed “because of the significant impact on the economic activity of restrictive measures for curbing the epidemic of coronavirus”. However, says the Central Bank, “in the second half of the annual rate of economic growth will remain negative.” “These estimates largely depend on the timing and speed of the easing of restrictive measures”, — emphasized in the comments of the Central Bank.
the Bank of Russia forecasts that at the end of this year the country’s GDP will shrink by 4-6%.
According to estimates by the Ministry of economic development (MED), Russia’s economy last month lost 12% in godovom mapping after rising 0.8% (on adjusted plus 0.9 percent evaluation), and for 4 months of the year — GDP decline is estimated at minus 1.9% in annual terms.
According to preliminary data from Rosstat, the country’s economy in the first quarter of 2020 grew 1.6% yoy.
According to the official baseline forecast, the MAYOR, the country’s GDP by the end of this year will be reduced by 5%, but in 2021 is expected to grow at 2.8%.
let’s Add that the Russian economy in February—March 2020 was under the powerful impact of two negative factors — the rapid spread of the pandemic coronavirus infection COVID-19 and its deleterious effect on the global economy and collapse in oil prices. Against this background, the rouble significantly depreciated against the dollar and the Euro. Reacting to the situation, the government and the Bank of Russia adopted several packages of measures to support the economy and citizens.
on 2 June Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin introduced Presidentof Vladimir Putin a national plan for the recovery of the Russian economy in 2020-2021 years, noting in particular that the cost of the plan will be about 5 trillion rubles.
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