the Russian national currency, starting bid Monday with a weak strengthening of the U.S. dollar moved lower in this pair, and the rate of the American currency for the first time since June 15, overcame up abroad 70 rubles.
So, as of 11:43 Moscow time the dollar exchange rate calculations “tomorrow” grew by 36 kopecks to the previous close to 70.16 rubles. The Euro by this time increased by almost 63 kopecks and was on the mark 78,9575 of the ruble, according to data exchanges.
As noted by the chief analyst of PSB Bogdan Zvarich, “the decline in oil prices will put pressure on the national currency although some growth rates in developing countries will hamper sales in the ruble.”
for its part, the financial expert CEX.IO Broker Alexander Anouk indicates that on July 1 will be a referendum on the amendments to the Constitution of Russia. “It is likely that by Wednesday the USD/RUB will not be observed any strong volatility, but the market reaction to this event will be visible on Thursday. It is unlikely that investors put in quotes any significant impact of the plebiscite, however, the surge in volatility may occur, and that traders should be ready,” — said the expert.
we also Recall that the Russian national currency since the beginning of this year has significantly depreciated against the dollar and the Euro. Strong pressure on the rouble had a General panic in the financial markets due to the rapid spread of the pandemic coronavirus infection COVID-19 and concerns about its impact on the global economy, and a collapse in oil prices.
So, the strong devaluation of the Russian currency occurred on March 7 on the international Forex market, after the day before the deal collapsed OPEC+, — countries of the Alliance are unable to agree on cutting oil production, nor of the extension of the deal for a longer period (1 April 2020). Then, on March 9, 2020, the financial and oil markets suffered “black Monday” and on 18 March, the market embraced a “black Wednesday” with yet another collapse of oil prices, the Russian national currency in the course of trading on the Moscow stock exchange has updated (at the time) a record low against the dollar and Euro since February of 2016, 81 and 88 million, respectively.
we Add that the real effective exchange rate of the ruble (inflation-adjusted) in may 2020 rose by 3.8% against foreign currencies relative to the previous month. In this case the real rate of the ruble against the dollar rose during this period by 4.7%, to Euro — on 3,8%. However, for the first 5 months of the current year the real effective exchange rate of the ruble fell by 7.8%, and the dollar — by 9.9%, and the Euro by 9.7%.
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