While the outcome of the war still seems distant, an international conference opened Monday in Switzerland will be largely devoted to the efforts needed to rebuild Ukraine.
Here is an update on the situation on the 131st day of the war based on information from AFP journalists on the spot, official Ukrainian and Russian statements, Western sources, analysts and international organizations.
– New stage in the East –
In the Donbass basin, already partly held by pro-Russian separatists since 2014, the Ukrainian army announced its withdrawal from Lyssytchansk, eight days after evacuating the twin city of Severodonetsk.
The Russian head of state ordered his forces to “carry out their missions” in application of the “already approved plans”.
Lysytchansk was “the last major population center in the Lugansk region still under Ukrainian control”, underlines the British Ministry of Defence. “Russia’s attention will now most certainly turn to conquering the Donetsk region”, much of which remains under Kyiv’s control.
The Russian army now seems to be concentrating its efforts on the localities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, shelled relentlessly. The regional governor, Pavlo Kirilenko, reported on Monday ten dead, including two children, the day before in Sloviansk and the surrounding area.
“Ukrainian army has installed a new line of defense (the Siversk-Bakhmut barrier) and continues to hold key fortresses in the Donetsk region,” Kyiv Independent defense correspondent Illia Ponomarenko tweeted. .
“The enemy has intensified its shelling of our positions in the direction of Bakhmout,” the Ukrainian General Staff clarified, explaining that the main Russian efforts around Kramatorsk were aimed at “pushing the Ukrainian forces back towards the Siversk-Fedorivka- Bakhmout”.
“Russian forces are likely to then advance towards Siversk, although they may launch more significant attacks on Bakhmut or Sloviansk, instead or at the same time,” said the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW). ).
“Ukrainian forces will likely continue to retreat fighting towards the E40 highway which runs from Sloviansk to Debaltseve via Bakhmout,” according to the ISW.
The Ministry of Defense in Moscow said Monday that the Russian air force had destroyed “seven command posts in one day” in the Donetsk region, including that of the 25th Ukrainian Airborne Brigade.
In Kharkiv, the second largest city in Ukraine, three civilians died in shelling before dawn on Monday, according to local authorities.
Russia claimed to have hit with air strikes “the temporary deployment points of the 92nd Ukrainian Mechanized Brigade and the 40th Ukrainian Artillery Brigade” in Kharkiv “where there were about 200 Ukrainian soldiers”.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reported progress in this area on Sunday.
– Ukrainian pressure in the South –
Mr Zelensky also welcomed positive signs in the Kherson region, which has been occupied by Russia since the early days of the war.
The Russians are trying to retake lost positions and “prevent the Ukrainian army from counter-attacking in the regions of Kherson and Mykolaiv”, according to the Ukrainian general staff.
Symbolically, Ukraine raised its flag again on Serpents’ Island, a few days after the withdrawal of Russian forces which ceded control of this strategic island in the Black Sea under enemy pressure.
– Reconstruction –
At the opening of the conference in Lugano (Switzerland), Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Chmygal estimated the cost of the future reconstruction of Ukraine at “750 billion dollars”, suggesting that priority be drawn from the frozen assets of Russian oligarchs , which he estimates at between 300 and 500 billion dollars.
By videoconference, President Zelensky described this reconstruction as “the common task of the whole democratic world” and “the most important contribution to peace in the world”.
Mr. Chmygal met with the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, the Czech Prime Minister, Petr Fiala, whose country currently holds the Presidency of the European Union (EU), as well as his Polish counterpart Mateusz Morawiecki in order to outline a “Marshall Plan” for Ukraine.
– Foreign fighters sentenced to death –
Two Britons and a Moroccan who fought in the Ukrainian army and sentenced to death in June by the judicial authorities of the pro-Russian separatists in Donetsk have lodged an appeal with the Supreme Court of the self-proclaimed Republic of this region.
– Tens of thousands dead –
There is no overall assessment of the civilian victims of the conflict. For the city of Mariupol (southeast), which fell in May after a terrible siege, the Ukrainian authorities evoke some 20,000 dead.
On the military level, Western security sources are now talking about 15,000 to 20,000 Russian soldiers killed. Ukrainian forces are losing around 100 soldiers every day, according to kyiv.
No independent statistics are available.
– Displaced or refugee Ukrainians –
More than six million Ukrainians are internally displaced, according to the International Organization for Migration (IOM) and the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR).
They join the approximately 5.5 million Ukrainians registered as refugees in other European states since the start of the invasion on February 24.
