the course of the Russian national currency, even in the case of the second wave of the epidemic coronavirus infection COVID-19, are unlikely to collapse to “critical levels” at the level of 90 rubles to the dollar. This opinion was expressed by the “Rosbalt” head of data analysis Department CEX.IO Broker Yuriy Mazur.
we will Remind, on the eve of the experts of the Center for macroeconomic analysis and short-term forecasting (CMASF) has not excluded that the dollar could rise to $ 90 in the case that the world will begin a second outbreak of coronavirus, and the Russian authorities will again have to impose restrictions on its spread.
“do Analysts predict a second wave of the epidemic of the coronavirus, which should come in September—October 2020. In the most pessimistic scenario, the national currency may sink to 90 rubles against the dollar. However, I am sure that these predictions are rather based on conjecture, and probably the only thing they can do is to sow further panic,” — said in comments the Mazur.
In his view, “the country has already experienced the first wave of the crisis, and developed a package of anti-crisis measures proved its efficiency”. “Of course, the epidemic hit hard by the economy, but to talk about the default or collapse is not exactly necessary,” — said the analyst.
He believes that “today the government and the banking system have an idea how to behave in a crisis situation, and what actions and tools will help to shift peak load.” “So I do not think that the ruble will collapse to such critical levels. The maximum fall, in my opinion, can be up to 72-75 rubles per dollar. Given the fact that the situation in the oil market stabiliziruemost, and the price of oil will retain the positive dynamics”, — the expert concludes.
we also Add that the Russian national currency since the beginning of this year has significantly depreciated against the dollar and the Euro. Strong pressure on the rouble had a General panic in the financial markets due to the rapid spread of the pandemic coronavirus infection COVID-19 and concerns about its impact on the global economy, and a collapse in oil prices.
So, the strong devaluation of the Russian currency occurred on March 7 on the international Forex market, after the day before the deal collapsed OPEC+, — countries of the Alliance are unable to agree on cutting oil production, nor of the extension of the deal for a longer period (1 April 2020). Then, on March 9, 2020, the financial and oil markets suffered “black Monday”, and on 18 March, the market embraced a “black Wednesday” with yet another collapse of oil prices, the Russian national currency in the course of trading on the Moscow stock exchange has updated (at the time) a record low against the dollar and Euro since February of 2016, 81 and 88 million, respectively.
we Add that the real effective exchange rate of the ruble (inflation-adjusted) in April 2020 rose 0.1 percent against foreign currencies relative to the previous month. In this case the real rate of the ruble against the dollar fell during this period by 1.6%, the Euro by 0.6%. However, for the first 4 months of the current year the real effective exchange rate of the ruble fell by 11%, and the dollar — by 14.3%, and the Euro by 12.9%.
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