Economic crisis in Russia caused by the pandemic coronavirus infection COVID-19, may return to the agenda of the “forgotten problem of mass unemployment”: the level threatens to jump to 8-10% of the workforce in the case of the implementation not an optimistic scenario. This is stated in the report of the Center for macroeconomic analysis and short-term forecasting.
the CMASF Experts do not exclude that during a prolonged pandemic mechanisms of adaptation are exhausted, and “the coming crisis may be the first, when to begin large-scale release of workers”, according to RBC with reference to the study.
Analysts have calculated the effects on employment depending on the depth of the crisis. So, in the optimistic scenario, the quarantine will end in June, and the unemployment rate at the peak was expected to reach 5.3-5.6 percent. According to the baseline scenario, re the quarantine will be in autumn and winter and give rise in the unemployment rate to 8-8,3% in 2021 and 7-7,3% in 2022-2023, respectively.
In the pessimistic scenario assumes that the pandemic will be delayed until the first quarter of 2022. This will cause a deep shock to the world economy with an unprecedented drop in global GDP to 5-5. 2%. In this case, unemployment in Russia will rise to “catastrophic” 10,5-10,7%, and the severity of the problem will remain even in 2023 with the level of 9-9,5%.
Recall that, according to Rosstat estimates, the number of unemployed in Russia is calculated according to ILO methodology, increased in April to 4.3 million vs. 3.4 million in March. The increase in the number of unemployed in April 2020 in annual terms (i.e. by April 2019) amounted to 21%, as compared to March 2020 and 23.4%. This implies that the unemployment rate in April was 5.8% of the labour force. This is the highest figure since April of 2016.
However, the Confederation of labour of Russia is assured that the overall unemployment rate in the country has already reached 8 million people.
for his part, founder of the service Superjob Alexei Zakharov believes that the real unemployment rate in RossAI is more than double the official statistics, and 5-6 times the number of people registered in employment services. The expert estimates the real unemployment of 10 million people.
“because Of the isolation, not all companies are physically able to execute all the legal procedures for dismissal, bankruptcy, closure of enterprises. Now they come out of isolation — and we immediately see a rise in unemployment. The actual number of unemployed 5-6 times higher. We believe that work already lost about 10 million people. By autumn the figure could rise to 20 million,” said June 3 Zakharov.
Meanwhile in Russia continues to grow the number of official unemployed, and, as of June 3, registered at the employment centres was 2.2 million Russians.
As analysts predict The Boston Consulting Group (BCG), the overall unemployment rate in Russia because of the crisis caused by the pandemic coronavirus, can grow from 4.6% to 8-10% in the short term. However, it is expected that by the end of 2020, the situation will begin to improve. In addition, according to BCG, the reduction of solvent demand of the population in Russia can reach from 2-3 to 9-12% depending on the scale of the crisis.
the results of the survey “Levada-center”, which was held in April, a quarter of Russians (25%) experienced delayed payments of wages and redundancies (26%). Almost a third of respondents (32%), in the family which is involved, replied that they personally or their family members have already touched upon the problem of reducing wages.
let’s Add that the Russian economy in February—March 2020 was under the powerful impact of two negative factors — the rapid spread of the pandemic coronavirus infection COVID-19 and its deleterious effect on the global economy and collapse in oil prices. Against this background, the rouble significantly depreciated against the dollar and the Euro. Reacting to the situation, the government and the Bank of Russia adopted several packages of measures psupport for the economy and citizens.
may 11, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the end of may 12, a single period of days off, entered March 30, in the fight against COVID-19. He also announced the beginning of implementation of the third package of anti-crisis measures, under which the state, in particular, will increase targeted support for families with children, small businesses, individual entrepreneurs and self-employed. In addition, Putin instructed the government to prepare a national plan for long-term development of the economy, the recovery in employment and incomes.
on 27 may, the Minister of economic development (MED) of the Russian Federation Maxim Reshetnikov said that the total cost of anti-crisis measures to support the Russian economy, aimed at combating the impact of the pandemic coronavirus has reached 3.3 trillion rubles.
on 2 June Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin presented to the President a national plan for the recovery of the Russian economy in 2020-2021 years, noting in particular that the cost of the plan will be about 5 trillion rubles.
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